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By us, one of the best bargains on Thursday is the Beach, which developed a siege mentality last week in the Big West Tourney for well-liked HC Dan Monson, who is being forced out by administrators after the season. Take that (!), say the Beach players, who won the conference tourney in rousing fashion, and might present more problems for Arizona than potential second round foes Dayton and Nevada. The Beach has length and athleticism, with several scorers led by G Marcus Tsohonis (17.1 ppg) and triple-double threat Aboubacar Traore, and numerous bigs to run at Oumar Ballo. The Cats might be more vulnerable than it seems, losing away from Tucson at Stanford, Oregon State, and USC...all sub-.500. Play Beach (NCAA at Salt Lake City)
Over the season, these teams rank Top 25 nationally in adjusted tempo. But both are playing slower during the month of March, with Arizona losing 3 possessions per game and its tempo dropping to #81. If Long Beach (+20.5) wants a chance against Arizona, it won’t try to win in a track meet. Oregon and USC beat the Wildcats by slowing down the pace. But if the ‘Cats holds a large lead late in the game, there’s no reason for them to push the pace. Either way bodes well for the under.
I typically don't lay big numbers but after breaking down all the games, Long Beach has the worst matchup of any team in my opinion. Everything the Beach does, Arizona does a lot better. Long Beach plays at a fast pace and is going to run with the Wildcats. That is a recipe for disaster. The Beach also has a poor transition defense. Again, recipe for disaster. The Wildcats are going to own the offensive glass and get a ton of open looks. Again...well, you get it. Lastly, Arizona was dominant when coming off a loss this season, winning the next game by an average of 20 points. The Cats got caught last year, so they won't overlook the Beach. Expect a blowout.
Both teams play with incredible pace. In fact Beach is #1 in pace and can’t play any other way. If LBSU can score 75 this will fly over.