It'll be an exciting matchup in Chicago tonight with both teams 12-3 in the Atlantic 10, one game back of the outright conference lead. Models make this Dayton -3.5, so I'm taking the Flyers' side. The difference is turnovers and free throws. Dayton does a solid job protecting the basketball and minimizing silly turnovers, meanwhile, Loyola-Chicago has a 19.1% turnover rate (last in the conference). Loyola has a great defense, but it leads to way too many trips to the charity stripe for its opponents. The more reserved Dayton defense keeps opposing offenses off the free throw line, ranking 7th in the nation in FTA rate allowed.

Loyola Chicago is 13-2 SU at home this season. However, the Flyers are the more athletic team. Each team has similar home and road spilts in terms of offensive efficiency. Loyola Chicago does have an edge in the rebounding department but have struggled with teams with above average defenses, outside of George Mason. The Flyers have struggled on the road, but Loyola Chicago has also struggled with teams that are efficient on both offensive and defensive side.

Dayton’s form has sputtered a little bit in the month, creating a high-variance proposition where the Flyers are capable of both a head-scratching loss to George Mason and a never-in-doubt double-digit win against Davidson in the same week. Dayton has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games on the road as well, and the environment for a late Friday night tip should be great for Loyola. But the reason to like the Ramblers as a team to expose that inconsistency is how Drew Valentine has led them to steady improvement throughout the conference season. Loyola was just 6-5 in mid-December but 14-3 since then and played their way into the top tier in the Atlantic 10.