The 31-win underdog is drawing considerable action, but this matchup is undesirable for Charleston. No team defends the transition offense, which is the Cougars’ bread and butter, better than San Diego State. The Aztecs also clamp down on three-point shooting, countering another Charleston tendency. SD State does not score much, so the Cougars could slip inside the spread. Yet it’s hard to forget that the Cougars yielded triple digits to North Carolina.

The College of Charleston only lost three games this season and comes into the NCAAs riding a 10-game win streak. But San Diego State appears cheap here based on the way it won its last four and 10 of its last 11. The Aztecs are back to the shutdown defense that has kept their last eight games Under the total. They’ve been at their best down the stretch defensively, allowing only 37% shooting in their last five, Back San Diego State to cover.

While many will target this game as a classic 12-over-5 upset, I'm leaning the other way in the direction of San Diego State advancing. It's a tough spot for the Aztecs traveling across the country to Orlando for an afternoon tip with a 31-win team from South Carolina, but the depth and experience of this SDSU team will allow them to grab control of the game and play it on their terms. San Diego State has 9 players who average at least 15 minutes per game and that group is made up of 7 seniors and 2 juniors. They're old, they've played together a long time and the combination of their stifling defense and slow pace should limit the scoring in this game. I lean San Diego State to win, and possibly cover, but think the best bet is limited possessions and limited scoring.