Simulation Picks
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Understanding Public and Money
Expert Picks
Going against two analysts is never a good feeling, however getting Gonzaga at a pick'em is amazing. According to Kenpom, Texas has the top rated defense and Gonzaga has the top rated offense. While the Bulldogs struggled with Michigan State, we saw last night that Michigan State is legit. Gonzaga is 4-0 all-time vs Texas. Here is where I think the Bulldogs have the biggest advantage: both teams get the majority of their points from two-pointers, however Gonzaga does a much better job at defending the paint.
Texas may have one of the best defenses in the country and will be looking for revenge from last season. The Longhorns down-low have Dillon Mitchell and Dylan Disu looking to contain Gonzaga's Drew Timme. Last season against Texas, Timme scored 37 points and got seven boards, but continues to be a liability on defense, which was apparent against Michigan State. Chris Beard will have the defense ready to contain him this go around in Austin. Gonzaga is the better offensively but haven't seen a perimeter defense like this. I'm on Texas.
KenPom’s projected line for this game is Texas -4. He ranks UT as the No. 2 overall team in the country and the Zags No. 3 -- I think this is Gonzaga's weakest team in at least a few years even though 68-year-old Drew Timme, who has been playing in Spokane since the Adam Morrison days, is still around. Texas should be able to handle Timme with a terrific frontcourt of Dylan Disu, Christian Bishop and Dillon Mitchell in the paint. Texas has registered a 43-1 advantage in fast-break points during its first two contests. The Longhorns would tie a program record for the highest-ranked AP opponent defeated.
Gonzaga definitely takes a step back on both ends of the floor with the loss of Chet Holmgren and Andrew Nembhard. Holmgren provided a unique shot altering precense defensively, while providing critical spacing offensively. Gonzaga misses both players offensively where they struggled with turnovers against Michigan State. Now we have a true road game in Austin against a team that thrives on the defensive end of the floor. Texas added some great talent in the transfer portal with Sir'Jabari Rice and Tyrese Hunter. I make the Longhorns -3.5 on their home floor.