Tennessee lost to Arkansas 58-48 at Arkansas a few weeks ago in one of the ugliest games that have ever taken place. Still, it was a much closer game until about halfway through the second half when the Vols forgot how to put that little ball through the orange cylinder. At home, on Senior Day, I expect the Vols team that's been the better of these two all year long to shine through.

Arkansas has been one of the SEC's toughest teams in the last two months, winning 14 of 15 games. Their only loss was a one-point road loss to Alabama. The Razorbacks are also a great cover team, 18-12 ATS on the season. This is a revenge spot for Tennessee and I expect them to win the game, but 6.5 points is too many. Arkansas has a 10-point win over the Volunteers back on Feb. 19, and this should be another low-scoring affair with two elite defenses. Back Arkansas with two-plus possessions here.

Tennessee has run through the gauntlet at home (15-0), recently beating Auburn and Kentucky. The trifecta among the SEC leaders would be completed by beating Arkansas. But the Vols' last loss came at Arkansas 14 days ago, 58-48. Both teams play great defense but the value lies on the underdog. Take the Razorbacks to cover Saturday.