Big price and I'd obviously recommend perhaps Leafs -1 to bring it down (a few other sites have this at -235), but I won't do -1.5. Ottawa No. 1 goaltender Cam Talbot is out, so it will be Anton Forsberg tonight and that's a downgrade -- and should be plenty for the Leafs to prevail at home, where Ilya Samsonov is an absurd 14-0-1. Ottawa is four games under .500 away. NOTE: Do NOT recommend this now that Auston Matthews has been ruled out. Not saying Leafs can't win and they are still big favorites but not worth the risk at this number.