The past two games have seen the teams combine for 112 penalty minutes. This leads to a plethora of power-play opportunities and high-scoring games. I think each club knows it can't commit "silly" penalties going forward. Both have really efficient man-advantage units. I expect a bounce-back performance from Colorado's blue line in Game 4. The Under is 4-1 in the Avalanche's last five contests after allowing five or more goals. There is a lot of offensive production that is sitting on the bench. I really like the Under after three straight Overs.

We are 6-0 in this Stanley Cup Final in backing the home team and over the total of 6 goals in each game so far, and there's no reason to change that strategy in the wake of Tampa Bay waking up big time in a 6-2 victory Monday. One clear advantage the Bolts had entering this series was in net with Andrei Vasilevskiy over Darcy Kuemper. While that wasn't the case in the first two games, it absolutely was in Game 3 -- and Vasilevskiy has simply been a different guy at home in this postseason. Kuemper was so shaky he might get bumped for Game 4 in favor of Pavel Francouz. While the Bolts most likely will be without Brayden Point again, apparently Nikita Kucherov will play after leaving Game 3 injured. I ONLY like the Lightning if Kucherov is in there. If he's not, back the Avalanche. But Tampa Bay is 14-1 in its past 15 home playoff games (the last line change matters!), so it has to be the choice. Stick with the over but I'll again knock it down to 5.5 goals to avoid a push.