The Canadiens were lucky to have won Game 4 after blowing two 1-goal leads then needing to kill off a 4-minute power play at the end of regulation and OT to avoid the sweep. The Lightning head home where they will have the chance to clinch the Stanley Cup in front of their fans, something they weren't able to do in the bubble last year. The Lightning are the better team, and if you don't want to lay the juice the Lightning puck line at plus odds look good as well.

The first one-goal game of the 2021 Stanley Cup Final was Game 4 in Montreal, which the Canadiens won 3-2 in overtime. Nearly 65 percent of my model simulations forecast Montreal covering the +1.5 puckline (-145) as the Final returns to Tampa for Game 5 with the Lightning trying again to finish things off.

Well, Tampa Mayor Jane Castor got what she wanted -- in a rather unusual statement before Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final in Montreal, she said she preferred the Lightning not sweep the Canadiens and win the Cup on home ice in Game 5. Sure, fans think that way but never say it out loud. The Canadiens did save their season with a 3-2 overtime upset Monday. They were pretty fortunate to do so, having to kill off a four-minute Lightning power play that spanned late in regulation and about three minutes into OT. I thought the Bolts were going to win the Cup in that span. For some reason, overtime is Tampa's bugaboo as the team is 0-4 in playoff OTs this year. Montreal coach Dominique Ducharme had a few lineup changes for Game 4, but the Lightning won't be caught off guard again and will not want to go back to Canada. Tampa Bay has not dropped back-to-back playoff games in two years or even trailed yet at home in this series and has won eight games in a row at home vs. Montreal. It ends Wednesday. I would also lean the Under again, although once again I recommend buying up to 5.5 goals because so many playoff games do end right on 5.0 goals as Monday's did.