The under hit last game despite a couple really bad mistakes by the Canadiens. The Canadiens actually played pretty good defense all game, the mistakes just cost them. These are two of the best goalies in the league right now and the shift to Montreal should help slow down the Lightning scoring. The Canadiens penalty kill didn't allow a goal last game and the Habs finally get their head coach back for last change after a COVID absence. Take the under.

The thing is, the Canadiens played a pretty good road game in Game 2, they just made a couple bad mistakes that ended up costing them. There won't really be a home ice advantage for the Habs in the stadium in Game 3 with a limited crowd but they will feel the energy from the city. All the momentum seems to be with the Lightning right now but the Habs win this game and they are right back in the series. I think we will see their best effort of the playoffs in Game 3, take the Habs.

Montreal won't have a huge home-ice advantage because Quebec rejected the team's request to increase attendance from 3,500 to 10,500 for the Stanley Cup Final. That might matter a bit because Tampa played and won in very hostile environments in south Florida, Raleigh and Long Island. This game may feel like nothing in that regard. The Habs will get back coach Dominique Ducharme as he comes out of COVID protocols. While the Canadiens played vastly better in Game 2, they still couldn't solve Andrei Vasilevskiy. I simply can't pick the Canadiens because of how good Vasilevskiy has been. Tampa is the better team and having to only pay -135 is worth it. Both puckline prices are too exorbitant to bother.

Really no point waiting on this total -- I'll be going Under on every game and the oddsmakers aren't going to raise it to 5.5 goals (again, though, I recommend buying that half-goal to be safe). Tampa Bay is scoring nearly two goals fewer this postseason on the road compared to home, and with the last line change the Canadiens will be able to get a lot of matchups they want. The Habs are allowing 2.13 goals per game at home in this postseason.