In perhaps a minor surprise in the second of a back-to-back, the Pelicans are essentially at full strength. That's why this number has dropped so much. I thought Zion might get the second night off, and CJ McCollum is back after missing two games. Still a third game in four nights and might be easy to take this one a bit for granted simply as the Pacers are in New Orleans on Friday. The Pelicans are 4-7 SU this season with a rest disadvantage like tonight.

The Pacers are at home and rested. The Pelicans are neither. New Orleans won last night facing a minor league version of the Knicks. The Pels weren't playing great ball before that. Indiana was exhausted last out against the Raptors as the team was on the second night of a back-to-back. Pacers roll.

The form chart this season suggests that if we think the Pelicans are going to lose, don't worry about the spread; in their last ten losses, they have finished within tonight's spread just twice. Not that we are often looking to go against New Orleans, though the Pels are playing a second of back-to-back and plenty of key cogs (Zion, McCollum, Ingram, and Murphy) are carrying injury designations into tonight; most likely available, though McCollum has missed the past couple of games. Yes, Indiana a bit up and down, and off of a poor effort vs Toronto, but in the two previous games looked sharp when blowing away the Pistons and Mavs. A quick rematch on tap Friday at Smoothie King. Play Pacers

Brandon Ingram averages 32.1 PRA on the season but this looks like a great spot to back the All-Star forward. He is facing a Pacers team that possesses the optimal blend of averaging 105.9 possessions per game (2nd most in the NBA), paired with a defense ranked 26th out of 30 teams. There is also a solid chance that NO starting point guard CJ McCollum will miss this contest after missing two consecutive games due to a ankle injury. Ingram is arguably the teams best playmaker as he leads the team in assists at 5.8 APG per game. It is actually Ingram's scoring that increases by nearly 5 points in games McCollum has missed this season.

Any time you get a discount on a Tyrese Haliburton combo line it is worth heavy consideration at the bare minimum. Haliburton averages 33.1 combined points and assists so we're getting a hefty discount on this combo line. Hali is also coming off of two down games, (by his All-NBA standards) and it is very unlikely he struggles in three consecutive outings. It's also worth noting that Hali is playing without any limitations. Look for an aggressive effort from the NBA's premiere point guard.