The big man is eating right now and this just proved to be a great spot for him to shoot from range, even on the road at Houston. He's over this in 8 of his last 10 games and should still be feeling it after nailing 5 of 8 from range against the Rockets Sunday. Holmgren is shooting just below 50% from the arc this month, averaging 2.7 3s per game. He's attempted 19 in the last three games and attempted at least 6 in 4 of his last 5 games. I expect him to lean into the deep stuff again Tuesday night. Lacking no confidence these days.

Holmgren tied his season high with 7 assists at Houston Sun. He managed 2 assists in their previous meeting at a time when he was just getting acclimated and wasn't playing well or much. He averages 2.7 assist/G at home and is over this in 16 of 26 games since Jan.1 (he failed to top 25 mins in 4 of the games he didn't hit 3 assists in total blowouts). OKC is best shooting team at home, so plenty of finishing. His 3-point prowess (5/8 Sun) leaves others open for easy buckets. Dude is on a heater and not averse to spreading ball around.

The Rockets are 3-11 ATS since Christmas - a pretty significant sample size (failing to cover 4 straight). The Thunder have covered 4 straight at home and are a scoring machine at home lately (147, 129, 127, 135, 126). OKC is 17-7 at home favorite and HOU is 9-17-1 as road dog. Rockets 23rd in net rating on road (-6.4) and OKC 2nd at home (+11.7). Rockets 27th in true shooting % on road and OKC 1st at home. Houston can't keep up and Thunder beat up on these lesser teams. Should cover double digits; OKC last 5 wins by 13, 41, 22, 14 and 14 points.