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Okay, Houston, let's see what you've got! Toronto ought to prove a beatable foe tonight; after all, Houston just ripped the Raps by 29 points last week. A concern (and it's not minor) is that Fred VanVleet misses this rematch, though note he scored only 10 vs. his old Raptors team last week at Toyota Center, Air Canada Center, and at midweek, Houston chased Indiana to the wire on the road. Mostly, though, this is a vote against the Raptors, on the road to nowhere after dealing OJ Anunoby last month, and just 3-12 SU their last 15 games. Play Rockets
RJ Barrett is only averaging 5.3 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game for the season, so this looks like a high number for him to hit. However, he has averaged 7.0 rebounds and 3.6 assists over 15 games with the Raptors. In those 15 games, he had at least 10 combined rebounds and assists 10 times. Barrett has appeared in seven games since the Raptors traded away Pascal Siakam and he finished with at least 10 combined rebounds and assists in each of them. Take the over.
The Rockets and Raptors just played each other last week. Alperen Sengun only needed to play 29 minutes in the blowout win for the Rockets, yet he still dished out eight assists. Over his last 10 games, he has recorded at least six assists seven times. Fred VanVleet (thigh) will be out for Rockets, which should leave the ball in Sengun’s hands even more. VanVleet has missed two other games within the last few weeks and Sengun finished with at least six assists in both of them. The Raptors have allowed the sixth-most assists per game in the league, so I love this over for Sengun.
The big news for this game is that Fred VanVleet (thigh) will be out again for the Rockets. With him out Tuesday, Dillon Brooks scored 23 points against the Pacers. When VanVleet missed a game towards the end of January, Brooks scored 25 points against a good defensive team in the Celtics. The same can’t be said about the Raptors, who have the eighth-worst defensive rating in the league. I would not be surprised if Brooks blows past this over and approaches 20 points again.
This is a combo line Barnes was routinely exceeding early in the season, however his RA production has dipped since the Raptors acquired Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett who are both high usage players. If we go back to January 1st which is when Quickley and Barrett debuted with Toronto, the under on this line for Barnes is a whopping 16-3 (84%). Barnes is averaging 11.3 RA over that 19 game sample. An additional component I like is Toronto is healthier than they have been in a while and as a result have a deeper rotation which may reduce Barnes PT a touch (every edge counts).