Some really unusual MLB scores the past two days -- glad I took a couple days to clear the dome. Might go back into my Aaron Rodgers-esque retreat (ugh, hate I just used that clown's name) if this loses but no Yordan Alvarez for Houston. Rookie Spencer Arrighetti is 1-5 with a 7.12 ERA on the road. It's the end of a very long trip for the Stros so a natural letdown spot ahead of a flight home.

Simeon-Woods Richardson pitched well upon promotion with a 2.57 ERA through his first seven starts, but his rough numbers in Triple-A since the start of 2023 suggested regression was coming. He's given up at least three earned runs in four of his last six starts and walked multiple batters in six of his last seven after doing so once in his first seven. Only two of the last 11 righty starters to face the Astros have allowed less than three earned runs, with top pitchers like Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez failing to pull it off. SWR should be favored to give up Over 2.5 runs today.

It has resembled batting practice at Target Field this weekend as these teams have combined for a whopping 37 runs while splitting the first two games of the series. I’m not sure much changes in the finale as Houston rookie RHP Spencer Arrighetti is coming off an especially rough start at Toronto, where he allowed seven runs (six earned) in just four innings. The Over has hit in seven of Houston’s last nine contests. Meanwhile, Minnesota RHP Simeon Woods Richardson’s last four outings all have gone Over.