The Cards' Sonny Gray is 6-2 with a 1.51 ERA at home. Gray, a former Red, has pitched 7.0 or more innings in three straight starts for the first time since 2015 with Oakland. Over 17.5 outs here is too pricy for my taste at -210. Shortstop and NL Rookie of the Year candidate Masyn Winn is back in there after getting Friday off. Reds rookie Carson Spiers has given up seven runs in 12 innings during his two starts this season, both of which came against Pittsburgh. The Cards got a couple looks at Spiers last year (still retained rookie status) as he allowed four runs in six innings against them. Cincy's Jeimer Candelario (14 HR, 39 RBI, 30 R) is out again.

It looks like Sonny Gray is back in the same sort of nice groove he was early in the season, allowing just four runs and 10 hits across his last three starts covering 21 2/3 IP (1.66 ERA). Most importantly for the Cards, they won all three of those starts, and the Redbirds hit Saturday after having recovered nicely from a heavy loss to the Reds on Thursday thanks to last night's 1-0 win behind Andre Pallante. Meanwhile, Carson Spiers has started to struggle a bit in recent starts for Cincy, as his 5.25 ERA across his last two starts would suggest. The Reds' indifferent form now extends almost three weeks (6-11 the past seventeen games).

Sonny Gray has delivered three strong starts after a shaky beginning to June, and now he's up against a Reds team that has struck out at the eighth highest rate per game. Gray has been one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league with 11.1 per nine, getting to eight Ks in half his starts. With 23 of the 56 true righty starters to face Cincinnati getting to seven Ks, I have to think an elite strikeout pitcher is going to get it done today.