Sonny Gray fanned 12 Brewers on April 21, and I like him to record at least seven strikeouts Thursday in Milwaukee. The Brewers are striking out at the seventh-highest rate. Gray has gone six-plus innings in four straight starts.

Gray has been masterful, though he is not a huge punchout guy, usually. However, he got the Brewers 12 times last time he faced them and that lineup is starting to slip back some and he is in peak form and this number allows for plenty of regression from his last outing against them with us still cashing. Can he go longer this outing and strike out fewer than 12 but more than 6? I absolutely think so.

Sonny Gray is pitching as well as anyone in the NL, he is locked in, with a ridiculous ERA (0.89) and just struck out 12 in 6 1/3 when he faced the Brewers a few weeks ago. Chances are he gets a little less swing and miss and is also a little less pitch-heavy in the first 5 innings to shutdown an offense that is regressing. I saw the Brewers spot starter first ever outing in rookie ball and have watched his career closely as he bounced between orgs. Maybe he can last 5 innings but his command is iffy, his stuff has been hitable (4 ER in each of his last two starts) and even the lowly Redbirds should get to him.