Alek Manoah looked great in his return to the majors, allowing one run over six innings while fanning eight Tigers. This will be a much tougher test against the Padres' lineup, which will include right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. as the No. 2 batter. He's back from an ankle injury and sports an .863 OPS. Joe Musgrove is 7-0 with a 1.79 ERA over his last nine starts. Look for the Padres to halt Toronto's momentum.

Pitcher Joe Musgrove has been fantastic since late May for San Diego so this total is all about Toronto's Alek Manoah -- and he's why I probably won't play a side because I'm not totally sure which guy he is. If the 2022 Manoah is back, and he looked like it last time out in Detroit after a stint in the minors to get back his confidence, then this almost surely is not going Over the total. If the skittish/seeing ghosts Manoah shows up, the Padres might score 10 in the top of the first. The Model has 8.2 runs being scored.