Josiah Gray has been excellent for the Nationals. He gave up 38 home runs over 148 2/3 innings last season, but he has been taken deep only five times over 52 2/3 innings this season. Three of those home runs came in his first start. With his improved ability to keep hitters inside the ballpark, he has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last eight starts. Starting for the Tigers will be Joey Wentz, who has a 6.38 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. The Nationals will also have the advantage of playing at home, so look for them to exploit this pitching matchup and emerge with a victory.

I don't back the Nationals often unless they face a left-handed pitcher, or Josiah Gray is on the mound. Sunday we got both in a matchup with the Tigers. Joey Wentz relies heavily on his fastball (48 percent) and cut fastball (26 percents) and both pitches have xwOBA numbers well below MLB average. The fastball at 48 percent of pitches has allowed 5 HR already and has a .433 wOBA. The Nationals are very good at putting the ball in play against LHP as they strikeout just 17 percent of the time. With Josiah Gray on the mound I make the Nationals 59 percent winners meaning this line should be closer -144.