No pitcher was better on a rate basis this season than Brewers starter Corbin Burnes. He was actually hit pretty hard the last time he saw the Braves, but the Brewers still won. As they did a bunch when he pitched. After the All-Star break, Burnes made 13 starts. The Brewers won 12 of them. The only loss came in his last start, which was only a two-inning outing against the Dodgers. Morton was good this year and I expect this to be a low-scoring affair, but the Braves lost five of his last eight starts and I like Burnes to be more dominant.

Both of these teams actually have reverse splits on the season, they both have better records playing on the road. They also both struggled against teams over .500, the Braves were 31-37 while the Brewers were 32-36. However, Corbin Burnes has never made a postseason start, he has made 6 relief appearances though. Charlie Morton has been very good in the playoffs in his career, and he really only has 3 bad playoff appearances in 13 starts. Corbin Burnes has actually been worse at home this season too, going 4-4 with a 2.85 ERA at home. Burnes faced Atlanta once this season and allowed 5 ER in 4 IP. Charlie Morton has been much better on the road going 8-3 with a 3.06 ERA and he allowed 2 ER in 6 IP against the Brewers the only time he faced them this season. This game seems like it should be much closer to 50-50, I am taking the underdog.

I don't see runline value either way here (Braves +1.5 at -170!?), so Brewers moneyline it is. Atlanta was better on the road than at home and so was Milwaukee, but I still like the Brew Crew in the opener behind potential NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes (11-5, 2.43). Burnes led the NL in ERA this season and had 234 strikeouts and only 34 walks in 167 innings. Milwaukee also has the superior bullpen even without idiot Devin Williams, who drunkenly broke his hand when celebrating the NL Central title. Braves starter Charlie Morton is very good, no doubt, but was 1-2 with a 4.17 ERA in day starts. I'd probably hit Under the total if it was at 7.5 instead of 7.

The Braves come into the playoffs red hot, winning 12 of their last 14 games to close out the regular season. They had teams like the Philadelphia and the New York Mets chasing them in the NL East, so it was like playoff baseball for them after they finally got over .500 for the first time on Aug. 6. Players acquired in trades to make up for the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) paid off. The Brewers found themselves being bored down the stretch after leading the NL Central for 137 straight days. No one truly threatened them, but they finished the regular season having lost 10 of their last 14 against teams such as St. Louis and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Can they simply flip the switch in the postseason? I'm on the Brewers in Game 1 because of the dominance of RHP Corbin Burnes, who is likely to win the NL Cy Young Award. While Milwaukee was sluggish in September, Burnes was still a dominant force. They won 12 straight games behind him before he worked only two innings in his last start, an 8-3 loss to the Dodgers.