Risky price here as the Padres are struggling and the Reds surging, but Cincinnati's six-game winning streak has come against two bad offensive teams (Rockies and Brewers). San Diego was just swept three in Colorado, which should serve as a wake-up call. I also think the fans will make a difference in this one because it's the first time the Padres are allowed a capacity crowd since September 2019 and there's an Opening Day-type vibe/celebration. The Reds are starting lefty Wade Miley, who has been quite good, but the Friars have won their past five at home vs. southpaws.

The Padres just got swept at Colorado and are now six games back in the NL West, sitting in third-place. The Reds have won six straight and pulled within two games of first in the NL Central. After their sweep in Milwaukee, the Reds are now 19-15 on the road. The Reds have won three straight behind Wade Miley, while the Padres have lost their last two behind Joe Musgrove.

Wade Miley is 6-4 with a 2.92 ERA on the season and he has really been much better than the ERA shows considering he had an eight-run blowup outing in Colorado. Joe Musgrove is 4-6 with a 2.50 ERA this season but the Padres are 2-8 in their last 10 games and they have lost three in a row. They have the 7th worst wOBA in the league against lefties and they are just 18-16 when they get a lefty starting pitcher all season. The Reds have won six straight games and their bullpen has been good recently while the Padres bullpen has been terrible. Take the value on the Reds.