Week 9 College Football odds, predictions: Parlay picks, best bets for SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, Pac-12 for the weekend of October 29th, 2022

I read an argument online this weekend saying that Oregon had no shot at the College Football Playoff because of their embarrassing 49-3 defeat against Georgia. If so, it's a dreadful look for the sport and one that will be damaging for years to come. Sure, Oregon was awful against the Bulldogs. But since then, they've obliterated everyone in their path, including a 45-30 win over then-unranked UCLA on Saturday. The Ducks have scored 70, 41, 44, 45, 49, and 45 points in their six games since. Assuming they run the table, why shouldn't they have a fair shot at the playoff?

Here's the first thought: why are we penalizing teams for going across the country, with no warmup games in Week 1, and using it against them for the whole season? Maybe the eventual 12-team playoff will change this, but until then, there's absolutely no incentive to teams playing a difficult non-conference opponent, especially on the road. Look at Michigan for example; they played a joke of a non-conference schedule, obliterated those teams, and basically have to beat Ohio State and win the B1G Championship Game as a big favorite to be back in the CFP. Meanwhile Oregon, who has a stronger strength of schedule, is penalized for a brutal opening week performance against the nation's top team? Not fair.

Assuming Oregon runs the table, including regular season wins in November against formerly-ranked Washington, #14 Utah, and at a stingy Oregon State team that is really tough in Corvallis, plus a win over presumably USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game, the Ducks would merit serious consideration. I would put them in the CFP over:

- One-loss Michigan, Clemson, TCU, and Oklahoma State. If any of the first three run the table, they're absolutely in over Oregon.
- Two-loss Alabama (assuming they lose to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game). 
- Ohio State passes the eye test, but Oregon will have a much better resume if OSU loses to Michigan -- especially if Georgia goes undefeated. Remember that the Ducks won in Columbus last September.

The big conundrum would be a one-loss Tennessee team, which presumably will lose on the road at Georgia on 11/5. Barring an absolute blowout by the Bulldogs, these are the only two one-loss teams, plus Alabama, that I would rank over a potentially 12-1 Oregon team at the end of the season. 

Don't get me wrong, I don't like the Ducks' chances to make the final four come December as there's a lot that needs go their way. But to say they've been eliminated just because of what happened in Week 1? Nonsense.

On to the picks. I had an awesome 9-4 week with two conference parlay wins, bringing my record in this column to 59-58-1 and earning a solid positive return on investment in the SEC. That's not to mention I was only a Pitt win away from hitting my eight-leg mega parlay at the bottom of the column! The Panthers had a big shot in the fourth quarter but melted down and seemingly will fall way short of the expectations I had for them in August. I really hope you followed my Alabama-Mississippi State stats and logic from last week as the game went under by nearly four touchdowns! 

It's not the strongest CFB slate this week, but I'll make sure to include the marquee matchup of the week, No. 2 Ohio State at No. 13 Penn State and the game I'll be attending, No. 10 USC at Arizona. Look for a high-scoring week in general, at least I hope so with my picks below!

Once again, the purpose of this column each week is to find the best parlay bets by conference. I'll try to keep each wager between two and four picks, but the combined parlay of my favorite picks at the bottom of the column each week will be our lottery ticket. If we hit even just one of those all season, it should get us a guaranteed season profit.

All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.

Make sure to check out Wildcat Country, my Arizona Wildcats podcast with co-host Shane Dale! New episodes out weekly.

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SEC parlay picks

Florida-Georgia Under 56.5
South Carolina -4 vs. Missouri
Kentucky +12.5 at Tennessee
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

Georgia's defense has given up 67 points in seven games thus far and 44 of those points came in two lackluster efforts vs. Kent State and Missouri. Florida probably isn't scoring three touchdowns and I'm expecting the Gators' defense to perform a heck of a lot better than they did the other week against LSU. It's risky but under is the play. Last year's 34-7 Bulldogs win should be a guide to what we'll see in this one on Saturday. Shane Beamer has done an incredible job in turning around this South Carolina team in less than two years and now they're back in the top 25. Missouri has been respectable of late but I have a hard time seeing the Gamecocks winning this one by less than a touchdown. It is a fishy line though. Tennessee is absolutely looking ahead to their titanic matchup in Athens next week. Kentucky will put a scare into the Volunteers, but I don't see them losing.

Game Record: 2-0 last week, 11-12 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 2 of 8 overall (+3.99 units)

BIG TEN parlay picks

Ohio State-Penn State Over 61
Northwestern-Iowa Under 37.5
Michigan -22.5 vs. Michigan State
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

Here's Ohio State's scoring totals since their 21-10 Week 1 win over Notre Dame: 45, 77, 52, 49, 49, 54. Penn State has given up 41 to Michigan and 31 to Purdue. You're telling me that OSU scores less than 40 here? No way. I also think the PSU offense is good enough to score at least two or three times to push this Over. This Northwestern-Iowa Under has to be one of the lowest non-weather affected totals in the last 30 years. But both teams' offenses absolutely stink. If I lose this one, so be it... but it's seemingly impossible to take the Over in this game by using any common sense. This year's Michigan State-Michigan battle feels like a repeat of the 2019 version that the Wolverines won 44-10. The Spartans have won the last two meetings and I don't think Jim Harbaugh and company will show any mercy this time around.

Game Record: 2-1 last week, 12-13 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 8 overall (-9.5 units)

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ACC parlay picks

Georgia Tech +24 at Florida State
Wake Forest-Louisville Over 62
Pittsburgh-North Carolina Over 64.5
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

The Yellow Jackets' defense has only given up 57 combined points in the three games since Brent Key took over for the fired Geoff Collins. I don't see Florida State, losers of three straight, scoring much more than 31, so even a Tech touchdown would be a push in that scenario. If Georgia Tech quarterback Jeff Sims plays (which I don't think he will), this line is an absolute steal. The lowest-scoring affair of the last five Wake Forest-Louisville games generated 66 points. Expect a shootout from start to finish, as is usually the case in many Demon Deacons' games. Similarly, Pitt and UNC usually play shootouts, despite the fact that the last two matchups both went to overtime but neither exceeded the 61 point mark. This is more of a gut feeling pick having watched the Tar Heels play little defense this year, but I'll roll with the Over and both teams scoring in at least the 30s.

Game Record: 0-2 last week, 10-12 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 8 overall (-11 units)

BIG 12 parlay picks

TCU-West Virginia Over 69
Oklahoma -1 at Iowa State
Oklahoma State ML (+105) at Kansas State
Parlay Odds: +647 (1 unit)

Oklahoma State, the No. 9 team in the country, is getting points again? For the third straight week!? With Kansas State QB Adrian Martinez's status a giant question mark after he left last week's game against TCU early, I expect the Cowboys to keep their Big 12 Championship Game hopes alive with a solid road victory. In West Virginia's last three games, they've given up 38, 40, and 48 points. In TCU's last three games, they've won with scores of 38-31, 43-40 (2 OT), and 38-28. I have a hard time seeing both teams not in the 30s -- and likely higher for the Horned Frogs. Oklahoma can score with anyone now that QB Dillon Gabriel is back from a concussion suffered on October 1st. Iowa State's season has gone down the tubes with four straight losses since a 3-0 start. I'm confident the Sooners can win the game and therefore cover the 1-point spread.

Game Record: 2-1 last week, 13-10-1 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 8 overall (-8.5 units)

PAC-12 parlay picks

Oregon-Cal Over 58
USC-Arizona Under 76
Stanford +16.5 at UCLA
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

Cal has been Under machine -- except against my Wildcats. They dropped 49 on Arizona at home to get the win in Week 4. Oregon, as referenced at the top of the column, hasn't scored less than 40 points since their opener at Georgia. With the Ducks needing to be impressive every week, I expect them to reach the 40-point plateau again and allow a few late garbage time scores to get this total into at least the 60s. The last three meetings between these teams have been low scoring but in the eight before that, the totals flew above this number. The total in Arizona's game is definitely over-inflated. In each of the Wildcats' three Pac-12 losses, they've given up 49 points. But with both defenses coming off bye weeks, I expect the defenses to be sharper. Even if USC scores 49, I'm not sure I have confidence in the Wildcats to reach 29 to push the spread. In all reality, I expect to see a game played in the 30s for the winner. Since David Shaw took over Stanford in 2011, he's 10-2 straight up against the Bruins and has never lost in the Rose Bowl to UCLA. The Cardinal's last three games have been decided by a combined five points and with a UCLA letdown likely in play here, I think Stanford keeps this one closer than the 16.5-point spread.

Game Record: 3-0 last week, 13-11 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 1 of 8 overall (-3.54 units)

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Week 9 College Football parlay picks

South Carolina -4 vs. Missouri
Kentucky +12.5 at Tennessee
Ohio State-Penn State Over 61
Northwestern-Iowa Under 37.5
Wake Forest-Louisville Over 62
Oklahoma -1 at Iowa State
Oregon-Cal Over 58
USC-Arizona Under 76

Parlay Odds: +17545 (0.5 units)
Weekly Parlay Record: 0 of 8 overall (-4 units)

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