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SportsLine NFL simulations: Austin Hooper has minimal impact on Cleveland Browns in 2020

The top free-agent tight end on the market is former Falcon Austin Hooper, and he reportedly is going to sign with the Cleveland Browns.
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The Cleveland Browns didn't seem like a team that would spend heavily on a tight end in free agency as they have a pretty good young one in former first-round pick David Njoku and bigger needs elsewhere. However, reports are that the Browns have signed the top free-agent tight end on the market, former Atlanta Falcon Austin Hooper.

Hooper, a 6-foot-4, 255-pounder who was a 2016 third-round pick out of Stanford, caught 75 passes for 787 yards and six touchdowns last season despite missing three games with an MCL sprain. The two-time Pro Bowler was fifth in the league in receptions through the first eight games with 52.

Hooper isn't considered a great blocker, though, and his average of 8.1 yards per target since 2016 ranks 21st among 86 qualified tight ends. Hooper reportedly will become the highest-paid tight end in the NFL (or of all-time); that role had been held by Kansas City's Travis Kelce, who was earning $9.368 million per year. Reports are Hooper is getting four years and $44 million.

Cleveland has scary pass-catching depth now for Baker Mayfield, who regressed in his sophomore season. Add Hooper to wideouts Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry plus Njoku (limited to four games last year but had 56 catches for 639 yards and four TDs in 2018) and running back Nick Chubb (and possibly Kareem Hunt).

As of now, Cleveland has a win total of 8 for 2020, with the Under a slight favorite on the NFL futures odds. The Browns were 6-10 last year under since-fired coach Freddie Kitchens. He has been replaced by former Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski. Minnesota employed two-plus tight ends more than any team in the NFL last season so the Browns are likely to keep Njoku.

The SportsLine Projection Model has the Browns winning 7.1 games with Hooper compared to 7.0 previously. The simulations assumed Njoku would be healthy and thus Hooper has a very minimal impact.

No free-agent signings are official until Wednesday afternoon. 

BROWNS  WINWIN%DIVISIONPLAYOFFCONFCHAMP
w/ Njoku 743.80%2.60%13.80%0.30%0.10%
w/ Austin Hooper 7.144.40%2.90%14.70%0.30%0.10%
Difference 0.10.60%0.30%0.90%0.00%0.00%
Matt Severance
Matt SeveranceSeverance Pays

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