We're finally coming off a 4-1 week that puts us just one point behind the 60% pace I try to stay on throughout the season, with only the Rams costing us a perfect week. Considering my next two alternates both hit (Chiefs, Bears), it feels like a missed opportunity to have a massive 5-0 day, but it's hard to complain with the results anytime you can go 4-1.

This week we'll have more games to pick from with no teams on bye, a strange decision by the league at the near midpoint of the season. You wonder why the league couldn't have flipped the Week 5 and Week 8 slate of opponents and at least given four teams (Browns, Chargers, Buccaneers, Seahawks) a later bye in the season. In that alternate universe, Pittsburgh loses a home game in London instead of Buffalo, and maybe there was a reason that couldn't happen, but otherwise it seems like starting the byes a week later would've been a net benefit for the league.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last six years, going 535-450-30 against the spread to put me up more than 35 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. I've also delivered a 56.5% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks over the last eight seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing a team that's on my card for the fifth straight week: the Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 at the Washington Commanders.

Am I just overrating Philly? My power ratings actually leaned slightly toward the Dolphins last week but have had the Eagles line at least two points light every other week since Week 3, so it appears the market isn't treating them as the top-tier team that I am. But how can you not with the Eagles at 6-1 and coming off a domination of the best offense in the league heading into last week?

I know there are now health concerns with Jalen Hurts, but that actually works out in Philly's favor this week, as he belongs in the pocket and throwing downfield against this awful Washington pass defense. While Washington took the Eagles to overtime in their first meeting, that game featured a lot of dumb Eagles flags, particularly on third down, and I expect much better from their defense this time around.

Since I only have Washington as having a one-point home-field advantage, either Washington has to be around average, or the Eagles have to be well below the other top tier teams for this line to make sense. I don't think either are true, so I'll be backing the Eagles again this week.

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks below, along with my large-format survivor pool play for Week 8. I am also fading a road favorite that has been struggling on offense. For his Week 8 NFL survivor pick, I'm rolling with a controversial team. These picks could be the difference between having a profitable week or going home with nothing.

So which teams should you back in Week 8? Which NFL survivor pool pick should you make? And which underdogs could win outright?... Join SportsLine right now to see who you should back in Week 8, all from the expert who has crushed the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament!