Last week was an interesting one, with a lot of home underdogs but most of them failing to put up a fight, most notably in Arlington where the Cowboys got absolutely pummeled by the Lions. Dallas will get the bye to regroup, while the Lions have a massive divisional game against the Vikings with first place in the division on the line. But the biggest matchup of the week is a Super Bowl rematch between the Chiefs and 49ers with both teams getting extra time to rest and prepare for this game. In both games, the home team is favored by only 1.5 points, and one will likely feature in my best bets for Week 7.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing an offense that appeared to take a step forward last week by rolling with the New England Patriots +5.5 against the Jacksonville Jaguars in London.

The Patriots have had to manage a rash of injuries that has laid waste in particular to their offensive line, but one injury development from the week that appears to be much ado about nothing is Drake Maye's knee. Despite being a full participant in practice on Wednesday, Maye was reportedly sent for an MRI, though that was never confirmed by the team. And on Thursday, he practiced in full again, which would suggest that even if he is managing through an injury, it's relatively minor. The Patriots defense was called out by head coach Jerod Mayo after an awful game against Houston, and I expect them to be focused for this matchup.

What the Patriots will be facing is a Jaguars team going through its own major issues, having trouble slowing down any offense not run by Deshaun Watson and typically looking incohesive on offense while ranking 23rd in points scored per drive. Their one win against the Colts saw them lose a two-TD lead with five minutes left in the game, so I don't know how they can be trusted to cover a big number against a functional passing offense. And that's what New England appears to have now with Drake Maye under center after he threw three TDs against a tough Houston defense in his debut.

What this game basically boils down to is that the Jaguars shouldn't be laying more than four points on a neutral field against any team with a shred of upside, and the Patriots showed that upside on offense last week. If they can rediscover the early success they had on the defensive side of the ball, they might not only win this game, but do so convincingly.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last seven years, going 636-534-34 against the spread to put me up about 49 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. I've also delivered a 56.7% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks over the last nine seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.  

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks for Week 7 below.

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