We're coming off a 3-2 week despite targeting teams I thought wouldn't be popular and hitting on some like the Patriots and Steelers. Our non-leverage plays listed in last week's column would've went 4-1, and in retrospect that's probably the way I should've gone as I still think I can get to the cash line with a 10-0 finish that would've been made slightly easier by avoiding the Colts as a play last week.

Most of the big line moves this week happened on Wednesday with multiple QBs getting benched and C.J. Stroud progressing in his recovery from a concussion. The injury report is a mess for a lot of teams, which makes it difficult to predict where the leverage might be in the contest, so I'm just going to play it straight this week and hope for the best.

This article initially featured the Commanders as one of my contest plays, but with Jacoby Brissett questionable out of nowhere, and with the 49ers' final injury report much better than I anticipated, I can't back Washington as one of my top five picks.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last six years, going 535-450-30 against the spread to put me up more than 35 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. I've also delivered a 56.5% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks over the last eight seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing the 'dog in a game filled with injury issues: the Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 at the Denver Broncos.

It's hard to have faith in this Chargers offense with both Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer ruled out, but that should mean a clear focus on running the ball, where the Broncos are absolutely awful. Not only do they have the worst rush defense in the league, but it's about half a yard worse per carry than any other unit. The Chargers were willing to commit to the run last week against the Bills and it almost helped them pull off the upset, and a gameplan built around the run game should have success against Denver.

I'm not worried the Chargers will have to abandon the run by getting down big. One reason is that their defense seemed to play better without Brandon Staley leading the show last week. But the bigger reason is that this Broncos offense has major issues for this game. I don't believe the market is correctly reflecting the downgrade from Russell Wilson, whose numbers have largely been fine this year, to Jarrett Stidham, a journeyman backup who had one good start last year in a system he knew very well. He'll now have to step in and run an offense without Courtland Sutton (concussion) and potentially without Jerry Jeudy (illness) and Marvin Mims (hamstring) as well. With those injuries baked in, these teams start to look very similar with who is going to be on the field, and I'll back the side catching more than a field goal.

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks for Week 17 below.

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