We had another solid set of picks last week, but our big miss came with the Browns, who gave up 8.2 yards per play to a Saints team down Chris Olave and just in general could not figure out how to stop Taysom Hill. Fast forward a few days and the Browns proved resilient and largely remembered how to tackle despite the snowy weather on Thursday, upsetting the Steelers in a game they led 18-6 in the fourth quarter but still needed a late drive for points to pull off the win. Results like this from week to week and even quarter to quarter make a team like Cleveland pretty tough to value, but we were able to escape Thursday with a cover on +4.5 on this site (albeit not a best bet for this column).

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm fading a team the market is heavily backing and taking the Las Vegas Raiders +6 against the Denver Broncos.

I'm not going to make a big case for the Raiders, a team with no running game and injuries to worry about in the secondary. In fact, I only have four teams worse than them in my power ratings, three currently starting backup quarterbacks (Giants, Cowboys, Jaguars) and one that has been a punching bag for the market all year (Panthers). But as bad as the Raiders are, they did keep things pretty close in the loss in Miami last week, putting together a long drive to pull within five points in the fourth quarter before the defense gave up a long TD and then a post-interception field goal.

This comes down to my belief that the Broncos aren't being properly rated. The blowout win over the Falcons was impressive but not unexpected; Atlanta has no pass rush to speak of, and Bo Nix has shown he can move the ball consistently when not under pressure. The Raiders rank third in pass rush win rate, which opens the door for a poor Nix performance like we've seen at times this season against the Steelers (fell behind 13-0 before kicking two fourth-quarter field goals) and Chargers (fell behind 23-0 before scoring 16 fourth-quarter points). Those two games also came at home, where Denver tends to have a great home-field advantage, and this one will be on the road, where Las Vegas also has a good home-field advantage (13-6-1 ATS in last 20).

The lookahead line for this game was Broncos -3, which I think was much closer to being accurate. I mentioned earlier my low rating for the Raiders, but when you throw in home-field advantage, the Broncos have to be 2.5 points better than average to justify their status as six-point favorites in this game. That would put them tied for eighth in my power ratings with the Vikings and ahead of the Chargers and Steelers, the two teams that completely shut down the Denver offense earlier in the year, as well as the Bengals and Texans. That's far too optimistic a rating for me, so I'm making the Raiders one of my best bets this week.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert from 2017-23, going 636-534-34 against the spread to put me up about 49 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.7% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks from 2015-23, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.  

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks for Week 12 below.

So which teams should you back in Week 12? And which underdogs could win outright?... Join SportsLine right now to see who you should back in Week 12, all from the expert who has crushed the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament!