We're back sharing my Las Vegas contest picks as I try to take down the Circa Million, and while I didn't finish in in the money last year, I did finish a little bit better than my long-term track record, which is still sitting well above 55% on my five weekly best bets. Week 1 presents several intriguing matchups, and I'm going to lock my picks in early for what's probably the only time this season as I want to grab one side of the Ravens-Chiefs kickoff game.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing the biggest favorite on the board: the Cincinnati Bengals -8.5 vs. the New England Patriots.

The line has come down a bit, likely due to uncertainty on whether Ja'Marr Chase will suit up after missing most of training camp while seeking a new deal. I'm not sure Chase matters to the Bengals covering, as I'd have this line well over double digits if he's on the field. The problem with the Patriots is that they're likely the worst team in the league, one where scoring points is going to be an issue all year and the defense has no guarantee to operate at a high level with Bill Belichick gone and Matthew Judon traded away. Typically the worst team in the league catches double digits on the road against top-tier teams, and the Bengals have been largely treated as top tier by the market; only 3-4 teams can typically be found with shorter Super Bowl odds right now. I'm actually a little more conservative on my Cincinnati rating, with six teams ahead of them for Week 1, so for the market line to make sense, the Patriots need to be well above the bottom tier. I'm banking that's not the case.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last seven years, going 636-534-34 against the spread to put me up about 49 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. I've also delivered a 56.7% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks over the last nine seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.  

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks below, along with my large-format survivor pool play for Week 1.

So which teams should you back in Week 1? And which underdogs could win outright?... Join SportsLine right now to see who you should back in Week 1, all from the expert who has crushed the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament!