The wild-card round didn't offer up too much in the way of surprise until Monday night, when the Buccaneers looked nothing like a playoff team and failed to give the Cowboys any type of test. The Dolphins did manage to stay close against the Bills thanks to a defensive touchdown, but the box score shows Miami got outplayed by a healthy margin in that game. I had the Giants pulling off the upset in Minnesota and expected the Ravens to give the Bengals a tough time in the other Sunday games. Saturday's Chargers-Jaguars battle had plenty of drama, but taking the Jaguars and the points somehow came through in the end (I say somehow, but we all know it's because of the Chargers' innate ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory).

Now the Chiefs and Eagles enter the postseason fray looking to advance to the conference championships, where Kansas City may not even have a home game thanks to the rules the NFL put in place for this season after the Bills-Bengals game from Week 17 was canceled. Those two teams will finally get to settle the score on Sunday, this time in Orchard Park, and while I had those teams close in my power ratings heading into the first meeting, some key injuries on Cincinnati's offensive line may have changed the tenor of the rematch.

What are power ratings? Well, anyone who has followed football (or really any sport) for any length of time has encountered a power rankings list that projects teams from best to worst. Where power ratings for NFL betting differs is that you're affixing a point total to each team that tells you how much better or worse it is from an average team. For example, if you think the Giants are the midpoint of the league, their power rating would be a zero. If you think the Jaguars are a little bit better, you might make them a +1. The Cowboys may be another step above and worth a +2 rating. Going the other way, you may think the Dolphins are a -1 or -2 team (or even worse).

After you've rated all 32 teams in this fashion, you can take the difference between two teams in a scheduled matchup to determine what the line would be on a neutral field. In our example above, we'd say the Cowboys should be favored by two points against the Giants on a neutral field. Then you add in home field advantage, which for a long time was considered three points as a standard but is actually lower on average in this era of football. I actually determine unique home field advantage totals for each team based on data from the last five years, and you can find my breakdown of this year's home-field advantage ratings here. I updated the HFA numbers of a few teams in my weekly workbook after six weeks and again after 12 weeks with a better understanding of which teams are good and bad, and which fan bases are likely to be more engaged than previously anticipated.

I've dived into each Week 20 game and evaluated my Week 20 power ratings to see what needed to be adjusted. I've also shared analysis of the most extreme differences between my projected lines and the market, as well as done the math to project the spread of every game based on my power ratings.

Which lines are several points off their power rating projections for Super Wild Card Weekend? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 20 power ratings from the expert who's 445-378-24 on ATS picks from 2017-21, returning $2,542 to $100 players!