New England Patriots-Miami Dolphins Picks Against the Spread

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (+9.5, O/U 44.5), Sun., 1 p.m. ET

The Patriots and Dolphins both have a lot to play for Sunday.

But if you're looking at the odds board in Las Vegas, you might not get that impression as New England is listed as high as a 10-point road favorite despite losing its past three visits to Miami.

The Patriots are expected to go all out with their starters in an attempt to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. The ideal scenario for them is to get a decent lead, then bring in a few back-ups, especially QB Jimmy Garoppolo, to close the game out.

The large spread is an indicator that Miami has nothing to play for, having already clinched a wild card berth, but that's not neccessarily true.

If the Dolphins win and Kansas City loses later at San Diego, they'll move up to the No. 5 seed -- which means a visit to Houston for the wild card instead of Pittsburgh.

Even though Miami started its incredible 9-1 second-half run with a 30-15 win against the Steelers, the Steelers are now the second-rated team in the AFC in regards to making point spreads.

They're red-hot, playing their best ball of the season. Who wants to mess around with that in what is the Dolphins' first winning season and playoff appearance since 2008?

Yes, playing Houston sounds like a much better way to extend the season.

DEJA VU FOR PATS

The Patriots found themselves in almost the same situation in Week 17 last season, when all they had to do was win at Miami to nab the No. 1 seed. They were 10-point favorites in that one too, against a 5-10 Dolphins squad, and lost 20-10, which gave Denver home field and a gateway to the Super Bowl that New England got to be a part of along the way.

So why such a high spread? William Hill's top bookmaker, Nick Bogdanovich, says despite the high number, no respected bettors are showing their hands on who they'll support in this game. That makes the number sound -- for now.

"Unless we have microphones in the Miami locker room, we really don't know what the Dolphins are going to do," Bogdanovich said. "What we do know is they're (Dolphins) locked in and in past instances we've seen teams in similar situations rest starters as the game goes."

The Dolphins really don't have many resting options at QB as veteran backup Matt Moore has already been playing the last two weeks -- brilliantly, I might add -- with the only option being T.J. Yates, signed three weeks ago.

If we knew Yates was going to play at least half the game, we'd expect all the action on New England.

AJAYI TO BE WORKHORSE?

Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi is probable with a banged up shoulder and should be expected to see limited action to rest up for the playoffs.

But who really knows until it's printed or tweeted by one of the Miami beat writers? And when any information is released regarding the Dolphins' playing time, that's when we'll see some large action wagered.

If I had to make an educated guess what is going to happen with the spread, I think we're going to see the number drop. And I believe we'll find out Moore is expected to play most of the game unless things get out of hand early.

If the Dolphins are winning or close, Moore stays in the game.

LINE MOVEMENT

The line opened at NE -6.5, but quickly rose to -9. By Saturday afternoon, the total had ticked up a half-point to 45.

SUPER BOWL ODDS

The Patriots are 7-to-5 favorites to win it all at the Westgate SuperBook, a number that's hardly attractive when considering they have to win three playoff games to cash.

The better bet to get maximum value is to lay the big money-line price in the two AFC playoff games and roll it over to the Super Bowl for a money-line play, where if they play the Cowboys it will be a cheap price.

As for the Dolphins, they're locked in to the playoffs and getting 80-to-1 odds. It's a rough trip to cash as they'll be underdogs on the road in four straight. But they've won nine of their last 10 and have a good running game and improved defense.

So if you're looking for a long shot to make a legitimate case for to surprise, the Dolphins might be it at 80-to-1.

SELECTION

I have a strong play on this game, and so does NFL guru R.J. White. Get all SportsLine expert picks on Patriots-Dolphins.