New England Patriots-Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview and Pick

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-8, O/U 48), Thurs., 8:30 p.m. ET

The Patriots start their championship defense at home against the Chiefs on Thursday night in a spot where the spread has been rising following a trend from last season.

New England comes into the game with a key player out while Kansas City is starting a rookie running back. It's a battle between two of the most opportunistic defenses, but best of all it's the first NFL game of the year. Let's get this 2017 party started!

LAS VEGAS ACTION

"We opened the Patriots -7.5 with low limits in July, but we got respected money laying it and the same thing happened when we went to -8," said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback, who is comfortable at -8.5. "We're at a 10-to-1 ratio with Patriots money, but it's pretty evenly bet as far as ticket counts, showing there is some Chiefs support out there."

CBS SPORTS: PATRIOTS LAND WR PHILLIP DORSETT

Stoneback said their total dropped from 48 to 47.5 due to sharp money making one large wager on the Under.

Station Casinos have reached the highest in town at Pats -9.5. The Westgate SuperBook opened New England -7 with a total at 50 on April 20 when the NFL schedule was first announced and is now dealing -9.

ROBERTS' RATING

I've got the Patriots 4 points better than the Chiefs and I give the Patriots a full 3 points for home field, so it's an easy 7-point spread for me.

ADVANCED COMPUTER MODEL PICKS EVERY WEEK 1 GAME

Usually, I would jump on an opportunity like this where there's over 20 percent of perceived value at the books compared with my number, but the Patriots are a different story. Their 2016-17 season was incredible, as they went 15-3-1 ATS against inflated spreads.

GREATNESS DEFINED

Tom Brady and Bill Belichick won their fifth Super Bowl together last season in what was their sixth consecutive year of making the AFC Championship game. They've had at least 12 wins for the past seven regular seasons.

They've made the playoffs in 13 of their past 14 seasons. They've become an expectant dominator, but I don't think they get the full credit they deserve. This is the greatest dynasty in the NFL.

And last year's run against-the-spread where they killed the sports books weekly was new territory for me -- it's when I realized just how good they are.

If you can beat Las Vegas weekly when the spreads keep getting inflated along the way, that's impressive. Las Vegas normally doesn't lose in those situations, but the Patriots did it like no other team.

EDELMAN EFFECT

Let's call Julian Edelman's value to the number a little less than half a point.

"They've got so many weapons, they're loaded and someone else will step up," Stoneback said. "Look what they did even without Brady to start out last season."

The Pats also did just fine without All-World TE Rob Gronkowski for eight games last season. They also get faster with WR Brandin Cooks, who signed on prior to the Edelman injury. Cooks, in his fourth season, had over 1,100 yards the past two years with New Orleans.

TURNOVER-TURNOVER

A big part of the Chiefs' 12-4 season last year can be attributed to their NFL-leading 33 takeaways, which helped them tie with the Raiders at a +16 turnover ratio.

Yes, they teach and practice takeaways, but some of it is lucky and it's not something that should be expected the following year. The Patriots were tied with Atlanta for having the fewest giveaways (11).

CHIEFS' BRUTAL SCHEDULE

If Kansas City makes the playoffs this season -- they're a -150 favorite to do so at the Westgate -- it will have been well-earned because the Chiefs have the toughest strength of schedule in the NFL. Their opponents boast a .573 win percentage from last season.

WHO IS KAREEM HUNT?

It didn't take long long for Andy Reid to decide who his feature back would be when last season's leading rusher, Spencer Ware (921 yards), tore up his knee during training camp. Kareem Hunt, selected in the third round, has impressed Reid so far because he's hard to tackle, he hangs on to the ball and he makes all the easy catches out of the backfield. Last year in his senior season at Toledo, he had 1,878 yards from scrimmage and 11 TDs.

SUPER BOWL ODDS
"We've got the Patriots at 3-to-1," MGM's Stoneback said, "but last Monday I raised them to 16-to-5 (+320) and got immediate play -- $4,000 here, $5,000 there, plays like that."

"We started the Chiefs out at 15-to-1, but have raised them to 25-to-1," Stoneback added. "They are currently one of our top-five teams as far as best results for us."

SELECTION

I have a strong play on this game. See it here.