The Browns' season might already be over. One could certainly argue as much. A loss on Monday night at home to the Bengals would likely render their sordid Deshaun Watson experiment a moot point for 2022.

It's not going to be the season the Haslams had hoped for, but it's the kind the perpetually-failing ownership group deserves. And I have a difficult time thinking it turns for the best against a re-ascending Bengals team in primetime. Much will be made of the Ja'Marr Chase injury, and understandably so, but he wasn't the only engine making this team go. The defense remains quite stout and the offensive line play has improved from a dreadful start. This feels like two teams going in very different directions to me.

Before we get into various plays -- if you are into live betting, definitely watch closely in the first half and keep the following in mind in the second half. The Browns have a minus-21 scoring differential in the second half, 24th in football, while the Bengals are plus-51, behind only the Bills entering this week. Cleveland has been a far better team in the first half than the second.

Bengals at Browns

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Spread: Bengals -3

The Bengals have covered five in a row and are on a 13-2 against-the-spread tear. Kevin Stefanski is 7-15 ATS at home. The Bengals are the more complete team and the Browns losing tight end David Njoku to injury last week is quite significant. Cleveland's rushing defense is atrocious and the Bengals are fairly adamant about staying balanced on offense. They'll continue to try to soften this defense up with it lacking any defensive tackles who can do the job. I am buying this heater that Joe Burrow is on and there are no shortage of remaining pass-catchers for him to target. He's also had a rough time of it against the Browns in his career, but it's time for that to change and I am going to bank on the coaching staff keeping in backs and a tight end to help contain Myles Garrett so he doesn't wreck this game.

Game Total: Over 45

The Over is 6-1 in Browns games – usually with a faster tempo and more erratic game flow in the second half – and the Bengals have gone Over twice in a row. It would not surprise me at all to see Cincy score 27-30 points, and the Browns have enough weapons on offense to score quickly as well. They do not shy away from deep shots with Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Nick Chubb will break off a few explosive runs as well, which could lead to quick scores. The Browns moved 70 yards and scored a touchdown on Baltimore in just 2:24 while running on six of seven plays and never seeing a third down. I'm not letting the Chase injury chase me off the Over (if you'll excuse the horrible dad joke). The Bengals are the only team in the NFL with four players with 400 scrimmage yards or more. They'll still put up points.

Team Total: Browns Under 20.5

The Bengals have held opponents to 18 points or fewer in four of their last five games. They know who they are, they play sound football and they keep everything in front of them. They are okay with Nick Chubb picked up some yards between the 20s, but they won't give away cheapies and they'll make it tough on Jacoby Brissett. I love the Bengals red zone defense too (third-best TD efficiency in the NFL), and this unit remains undervalued in my opinion.

Same-Game Parlay (+460)

• Joe Burrow Over 267.5 Passing Yards
• Tyler Boyd Anytime TD 
• Bengals Moneyline

Player Props

Note: Most Brown individual props were still not on the board as of this writing

Joe Burrow Over 23.5 Completions (+108)

Good luck getting the ball out of his hands. Burrow is coming off back-to-back games in which he completed 75% of his passes with at least 300 passing yards and at least four touchdowns accounted for without turning it over. They'll want to spread the ball around without Chase and I see plenty of high-percentage targets to the backs and tight ends. They will find the holes in the Browns' zone looks. Cleveland's linebackers have really struggled and the secondary has an inviting underbelly as well. Great value play here for the hottest quarterback in the NFL.

Joe Mixon Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-119)

The Bengals love running out of 11 Personnel. They have done it 123 times, the second-most in the league this season. It's something they have gotten better at along the way. It's part of their lifeblood, even though they have averaged just 3.77 yards per carry doing it. The Browns can't defend spread runs to save their lives. They got gashed by the Ravens last Sunday. Cleveland allows a staggering 6.71 per carry against those looks, yet they have seen it the third-least of any NFL team. The Bengals staff will study the film and see what teams in their division are doing to the Browns. Mixon gets volume, and I see him breaking a few longer runs en route to this total.

Harrison Bryant Anytime TD (+250)

Stefanski's scheme is all about the tight ends. You can find plenty of series this season where pretty much everything goes through them. Bryant has a chance for primary looks and targets with Njoku out. They are so reliant on 12 and 13 sets that they can't go away from it if they wanted to. Bryant is athletic enough, and with speed on the outside, I like his chances of getting some looks over the middle in the red zone.

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