The Kentucky Wildcats will take on the Troy Trojans in a Midwest Region matchup in the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament Friday. Kentucky (22-11) landed the No. 3 seed in the Midwest, while Troy (23-10) earned the No. 14 seed. The Wildcats posted a 10-8 record in SEC play. The Trojans went 13-5 in the Sun Belt before going on a run to win the conference tournament championship. Troy is 20-10-1 and Kentucky is 16-17 against the spread this season.

Tipoff from the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Kentucky is a 11.5-point favorite in the latest Troy vs. Kentucky odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 151.5. 

Before making any Kentucky vs. Troy picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds! Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated Kentucky vs. Troy 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in 70% of simulations!

So who wins Kentucky vs. Troy in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, and which side of the spread hits in 70% of simulations? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that is 228-166 (+2025) on top-rated college basketball pick and has nailed 24 double-digit upsets!