Heisman Trophy odds: Justin Fields likely will not win in 2020 as early favorites rarely do

Ohio State can claim seven Heisman Trophy winners in school history (technically six since Archie Griffin won it twice), but no Buckeye has won college football's biggest award since quarterback Troy Smith in 2006. Current signal-caller Justin Fields is the +350 favorite on the moneyline odds at William Hill sportsbook, and if Fields is still the favorite when the 2020 season kicks off then history says he most likely will not win.

Heisman voters are a fickle bunch in that they essentially need to see major next season improvement from a betting favorite to vote for them again. In his first year with Ohio State, Fields was spectacular in finishing third in the 2019 Heisman voting.

The Georgia transfer was the Big Ten's Offensive Player of the Year and Quarterback of the Year. Fields completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 3,273 yards, 41 touchdowns and just three interceptions while rushing for 484 yards and 10 touchdowns. He became the first quarterback in Big Ten history with at least 40 passing and 10 rushing TDs in one season.

Fields accounted for at least two scores in 13 of 14 games. The only one he didn't was also the game where he threw two of his three picks: The 29-23 College Football Playoff semifinal loss to Clemson. Fields threw for 320 yards but one TD and was a non-factor on the ground. His final pass was an interception in the end zone with less than 40 seconds left.

Keep in mind that sportsbooks have different Heisman odds and going back further than 2010 is a bit sketchy, but a preseason favorite has not won the Heisman via my research since Southern Cal quarterback Matt Leinart in 2004. He had finished sixth the previous year.

Last year at this time, LSU's Joe Burrow was about +5000 on the moneyline odds. Entering 2017, Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield was a second-favorite to USC's Sam Darnold. Oregon's Marcus Mariota was just behind Florida State's Jameis Winston on the odds entering the 2014 season. Winston had won the Heisman the year before and then Mariota did in '14. Mayfield and Mariota were the two closest to being favorites entering a season to win in recent years.

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