The NFC East has had a different champion for 19 straight seasons, the longest streak without a repeat division winner in NFL history. That trend will continue this season, and whether it's the Commanders (7-3) or Eagles (7-2) as 2024 champion will in large part be determined tonight when they meet in Philadelphia to kickoff Week 11 on Thursday Night Football. Philly is a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 49 in the teams' first meeting of the year. Cold temperatures and possible rain are in the forecast.

We've reached the point of the season where playoff chances become part of these primetime previews if relevant, and clearly that's the case here. Dallas was the 2023 NFC East champion but has zero chance of repeating at 3-6 and with starting quarterback Dak Prescott out with an injury for the rest of the season. The New York Giants are 2-8 and can barely tie their own shoelaces, so they aren't a factor.

The winner tonight will hold a crucial early head-to-head tiebreaker with the rematch coming in Maryland in Week 16. At DraftKings, Philadelphia is the -210 division favorite but also could easily lose its next two games at the Rams and at the Ravens before closing with four of five at home. Washington is +150 and will be favored in its next two at home vs. Dallas and Tennessee before a Week 14 bye. Four of the Commanders' final six games are at home. 

The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts better than a 40% swing in NFC East title chances for tonight's winner. It currently gives Washington a 58.4% shot to win the division (equates to -140) but that would rise to 80.2% (-405) with a win, but would also drop to 36.2% (+176) with a loss. Philadelphia currently is given a 41.6% shot of winning the division (+140), which would rise to 60.5% (-153) with a victory and drop to 17.8% (+462) with a loss. Should the teams split the series, the Commanders win the division 59.8% of the time, and Philadelphia would have a 40.1% chance. 

Of course, a division champion is guaranteed at least one home playoff game. Both clubs are heavily favored to make the postseason with Philly at -1800 and Washington at -700, and that both have two combined games left against the other two bad East teams obviously helps with their wild-card chances. 

We'll take you through every aspect of the Commanders-Eagles game that you need to know before you lock in your bets, including SportsLine expert picks, props, trends, DFS, injury information and everything else that will help you know which plays are worth making for the primetime matchup.

Who wins Commanders vs. Eagles in the Week 11 Thursday night game, and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread hit HARD? Join SportsLine right now to see everything you need to know about the game in the Thursday night matchup to kick off Week 11 of the 2024 season!