The 2024 Wurth 400 will take place on Sunday at Dover Motor Speedway, with the green flag scheduled to drop at 2 p.m. ET. Last week's winner, Tyler Reddick, is a 22-1 longshot in the 2024 Wurth 400 odds. Kyle Larson is the 9-2 favorite in the 2024 NASCAR at Dover odds, followed by Martin Truex Jr. at 6-1. Kyle Busch is on the pole. Before scouring the 2024 Wurth 400 starting lineup and making any 2024 NASCAR at Dover predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Wurth 400 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Our proven projection model has simulated the 2024 Wurth 400 10,000 times and come up with a surprising leaderboard. Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model takes into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

McClure's model was red-hot during the 2023 season, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas. 

It also called its first victory of the 2024 season with Larson winning again in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout then predicted a Denny Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021 too. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021 and hit nine last year alone! Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw HUGE returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on NASCAR at Dover and released its projections.

The model knows Dover Motor Speedway is a 1.03-mile oval that has hosted the NASCAR Cup Series since 1969. "The Monster Mile" features 24-degree banking in the turns and nine-degree banking in the straightaways with a concrete racing surface. Jimmie Johnson is the all-time leader in NASCAR Cup Series wins at Dover with 11. Meanwhile, Truex is the reigning champion at Dover, winning last year's race over Ross Chastain after leading 68 laps total.

For the 2024 Wurth 400, we can tell you the model is high on Chase Elliott, even though he's a 12-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Dover odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a HUGE payday. And a massive shocker: Martin Truex Jr., who is second in points and one of the Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five! There are far better values in the 2024 Wurth 400 starting lineup.

The model is also targeting FOUR OTHER drivers with 2024 NASCAR at Dover odds longer than 10-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag! Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who they are before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2024 Wurth 400, and which EPIC longshots are a MUST-BACK? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the full projected NASCAR at Dover leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 18 winners, including three already this year!