There are two games this week that are similar on the surface in that one of the best teams in the league is facing one of the worst at home, but the two have a gap of 14 points in their spreads. The Ravens are 17.5-point favorites against the Browns, while the Eagles are 3.5-point favorites against the Giants. The reason is obvious to anyone following the NFL playoff picture even a little bit, as the Ravens need to win to lock up the AFC North, while the Eagles are locked into the No. 2 seed after the Vikings beat the Packers on Sunday.

What the betting market is saying is that the Eagles are going to empty their bench and treat Week 18 like a preseason game, resting key players and getting ready for the wild-card round. It's possible Tanner McKee starts at quarterback for Philadelphia, and anyone dealing with a nagging injury will probably make way for a backup to play. But unlike the preseason, NFL teams are still limited by active roster limits that can only be marginally supplemented by two practice squad elevations for gameday. There's also more of a rotation on the defensive side of the ball, especially in the trenches, that keeps more of the roster involved than at other positions; four of the five Eagles' starting offensive linemen have played 900 snaps while no defensive lineman have, for example.

So the real question is how much rest and motivation matter. Is it worth 14 points in the Eagles' situation? Will that even be a true "rest everyone we can" situation with Saquon Barkley 100 yards from the rushing record? If the Eagles' first-string offensive line and Barkley play, that could potentially be enough to win by margin against a Giants team that looked dead before last week, and if there are reports the Eagles are leaning toward that plan then I expect the spread to rise. We'll cover every motivation angle below, but our spread power ratings will treat each team like it has everything to play for so that we can gauge the discrepancy in the market and decide whether the adjustment is too much, not enough or just right.

What are NFL spread power ratings? You can check out the explainer in how to build and maintain NFL power ratings in our Week 1 version of this column. Or, you can read on to see my ratings for every team and where I think the market is off this week. I went 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks from 2017-23 and even better with my top five picks each week, going 428-327-25 (56.7%) from 2015-23 in the big Las Vegas spread picks contests. My power ratings have been a big part of maintaining that success. 

Which teams are being underrated by the betting market? And which spreads are the furthest off where they should be? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 17 NFL power ratings from the expert who's 636-534-34 on ATS picks from 2017-23, returning $4,899 to $100 players!