The Chiefs won for the 13th time in 14 tries on Sunday, covering a spread for the first time since Week 6. But the victory may have cost them two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes in the process, at least for the short-term. Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain late in the win that ended his day early, and with the quick turnaround to a Saturday game this week and a Wednesday game the following week, it's likely he'll have to miss at least one and maybe even two weeks before a Week 18 game where little could be on the line depending on how the team fares in his expected absence.

The betting market is mostly expecting Mahomes to miss this week's game against the Texans, who are two-point favorites in Kansas City. Compare that to a lookahead line of Chiefs -4 prior to Mahomes' injury, and that's a six-point adjustment already. Typically Mahomes is worth more than that to the spread, and it's likely we see the line tick up to Texans -3 once he's ruled out and potentially slightly higher. However, I'm not sure I quite agree with that adjustment.

That's because the Mahomes of 2024 hasn't been playing anywhere near the level we typically expect from the perennial MVP candidate. Despite Kansas City's record, Mahomes' overall numbers look eerily similar to his performance from last year, when many left the Chiefs for dead after a less-than-impressive regular season. The one major difference from last year is that Mahomes is getting sacked quite a bit more; while he typically gets sacked on about 3.4 to 4.4% of the snaps in a given season, that number is all the way up to 6.5% with the issues the Chiefs have endured on the offensive line this season.

I had already placed the Chiefs well below the other top teams in my spread power ratings based on how the team has performed on the field regardless of its record, and I don't want to drop them too far down in my ratings because this team still has talent on both sides of the ball as well as one of the best coaches in NFL history calling the shots. The furthest I'm willing to move the Chiefs is six points if Mahomes is out (rather than the market moving them six points for now and then likely a bit further once he's ruled out), and that makes them a coin flip against the Texans this week once you account for home-field advantage. That means that if you see Chiefs +3 at any point, you should grab it.

What are NFL spread power ratings? You can check out the explainer in how to build and maintain NFL power ratings in our Week 1 version of this column. Or, you can read on to see my ratings for every team and where I think the market is off this week. I went 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks from 2017-23 and even better with my top five picks each week, going 428-327-25 (56.7%) from 2015-23 in the big Las Vegas spread picks contests. My power ratings have been a big part of maintaining that success. 

Which teams are being underrated by the betting market? And which spreads are the furthest off where they should be? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 16 NFL power ratings from the expert who's 636-534-34 on ATS picks from 2017-23, returning $4,899 to $100 players!