The 2024 Monaco Grand Prix will take place this Sunday on the streets of Monaco and the biggest race on the Formula 1 schedule is shaping up to be one of the most dramatic in years. Red Bull Racing's Max Verstappen has won five of seven races this season but the Red Bull Racing superstar has faced a serious challenge from McLaren's Lando Norris in recent weeks. Norris won in Miami and Verstappen had to fend him off on the final lap at Imola last week, with McLaren's recent equipment upgrades making them a clear threat on any given week.

The green flag will drop at 9 a.m. ET on Sunday and Verstappen is the -125 favorite (bet $125 to win $100) while Monaco's own Charles Leclerc (Team Ferrari) is priced at +400. Norris is listed at +550 in this week's F1 odds while teammate Oscar Piastri is priced at +1000 after finishing fourth last week in Italy. Sergio Perez (+1400) and Carlos Sainz (+1600) are the only other drivers listed shorter than +6600.

SportsLine's proven computer projection model simulated the Monaco GP 2024 10,000 times and come up with a surprising leaderboard.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary Formula 1 prediction model takes into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

The model has been scorching hot when it comes to picking Formula 1 race events dating back to 2021. It nailed both of Charles Leclerc's wins in 2022, and at the 2021 Mexican Grand Prix, the model was strongly backing Verstappen as its top pick. The result: Verstappen dominated the field and ran away with a surprising victory. 

It followed that up by calling Verstappen's win at the Rolex Emilia Romagna GP in April and nailed Verstappen to win in Belgium, the Netherlands, Japan, the United States, Mexico and Abu Dhabi. It also called all 19 of Verstappen's wins during the 2023 season and nailed each of his five wins in 2024! Anyone who followed the model's lead on those plays has seen HUGE returns!

The Monaco Street Circuit is one of the most challenging on the Formula 1 schedule, with the 19-turn, 2.074-mile circuit winding through the streets of prestigious Monte Carlo. With tight turns, several different racing surfaces and little room for passing, qualifying is of the utmost importance. The pole winner has gone on to win the Monaco Grand Prix in 13 of the last 21 years, with Verstappen darting off to a nearly 28-second win last year after earning pole position. 

Now, the model has dialed in on the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix and just released its coveted picks and leaderboard projections. 

We can tell you the model is fading Sergio Perez, predicting he doesn't crack the top five for Red Bull Racing! Despite winning five times over the last three seasons and improving from fourth in the F1 standings in 2021, to third in 2022 and second last season, Perez has faced serious questions about his future status at Red Bull all season and it's possible that it's starting to weigh on him.

After earning four podium finishes in the first five races of the season, Perez has finished fourth and eighth in his last two starts. He was nearly 55 seconds off Verstappen's pace in the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, with both drivers from Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari finishing ahead of Perez as well. Perez won the 2022 Monaco Grand Prix but finished 16th last season and the model is predicting that his struggles continue on Sunday.

Instead, the model is also targeting one driver going off longer than 50-1 to make a serious charge up the leaderboard! Anyone who backs this driver could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who he is before locking in any Formula 1 Monaco GP picks of your own.

So who wins the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix, and which SERIOUS longshot could be in contention? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the full projected Monaco GP leaderboard, all from the model that nailed all 19 of Verstappen's wins last season, and find out!