After winning by nearly 23 seconds last week (the largest margin of victory in Formula 1 this season), McLaren's Lando Norris is riding high entering the 2024 Italian Grand Prix on Sunday. Norris probably doesn't have enough time to run down Max Verstappen in the F1 standings but McLaren has pulled to within 30 points of Red Bull Racing in the constructors' championship. So can Norris and Oscar Piastri continue to reel Verstappen, Sergio Perez and Red Bull in to give us our first compelling title race since 2021?

Norris is the +105 favorite (bet $100 to win $105) in the 2024 Italian Grand Prix odds. Meanwhile, Verstappen is listed at +250 in this week's F1 odds and that pair are followed by Piastri (+600) and Ferrari teammates Charles Leclerc (+1200) and Carlos Sainz (+1600).

SportsLine's proven computer projection model simulated the Italian GP 2024 10,000 times and come up with a surprising leaderboard.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary Formula 1 prediction model takes into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

The model has been scorching hot when it comes to picking Formula 1 race events dating back to 2021. It nailed both of Charles Leclerc's wins in 2022, and at the 2021 Mexican Grand Prix, the model was strongly backing Verstappen as its top pick. The result: Verstappen dominated the field and ran away with a surprising victory. 

It followed that up by calling Verstappen's win at the Rolex Emilia Romagna GP in April and nailed Verstappen to win in Belgium, the Netherlands, Japan, the United States, Mexico and Abu Dhabi. It also called all 19 of Verstappen's wins during the 2023 season and nailed each of his seven wins in 2024 while also nailing Norris as a +200 in the Netherlands! Anyone who followed the model's lead on those plays has seen HUGE returns!

Autodromo Nazionale Monza, more commonly known as Monza for short, was opened in 1922 and it's hosted the Italian Grand Prix in every year but one (1980) since 1950. The 11-turn grand prix circuit measures 3.6 miles and its lengthy straightaways make it one of the fastest tracks in F1. Verstappen has won the Italian Grand Prix the last two seasons but Daniel Ricciardo, Pierre Gasly, Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton (five times) all have won the Italian GP as well.

Now, the model has dialed in on the 2024 Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix and just released its coveted picks and leaderboard projections. 

We can tell you the model is predicting a stunning top-10 finish for Lance Stroll of Aston Martin that would pay out +135. The 25-year-old Canadian holds a narrow edge over Nico Hulkenberg and Yuki Tsunoda for 10th in the current F1 standings and he's managed six points finishes overall on the season.

That includes a season-best sixth-place finish in Australia earlier in the year. Stroll was seventh in the Italian Grand Prix in 2021 for Aston Martin and he also recorded one of his three career podium finishes at Monza for Racing Point in 2020. Now the model is predicting another strong finish in Italy for Aston, predicting both Stroll and teammate Fernando Alonso pick up points.

The model has also made its win prediction and is also targeting one significant underdog to make a charge up the leaderboard! Anyone who backs this driver could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who he is before locking in any Formula 1 Italian GP picks of your own.

So who wins the 2024 Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix, and which SERIOUS longshot could be in contention? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the full projected Italian GP leaderboard, all from the model that nailed all 26 of Verstappen's wins since last season and called Norris' win in the Dutch Grand Prix, and find out!