2017 Super Bowl Spread: Big Falcons bets a smokescreen?

Where's the number going?

That's the magic question across Las Vegas. The answer will come from thousands of bettors bringing millions in cash to wager on Super Bowl LI.

As of Friday afternoon, the Patriots have been steady 3-point favorites for 13 straight days.

But there still is a long way to go, at least as far as the betting goes.

MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback estimates that up to 90 percent of their action will arrive Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The main betting story of the Super Bowl will unfold in these final three days.

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I've been talking with most of the books around town the last two weeks, and most said they are going to let the money move them.

3 IS MOST COMMON MARGIN OF VICTORY

The most key number in the NFL is 3 -- 12.4 percent of this season's games ended with a 3-point margin -- and it takes several max wagers for books to move off it in the regular season. The amounts are magnified multiple times with this being the largest handled game of the year. (Last year, Nevada books took a record $132.5 million in Super Bowl wagers).

Do the Patriots move to -3.5, does the move ever happen at all, or does public Atlanta money surprise everyone and push the game down to -2.5?

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For a different take, I discussed the matter with professional bettor Jeff Whitelaw, one of Vegas' most respected bettors. He's already made his bet on the Patriots.

"I think we're going to see Patriots -3.5, or at least -3 (-120)," Whitelaw said Friday morning. "All the books I've been talking with say they have more cash on the Patriots pointspread, but more on the Falcons money line.

"I expect both trends to continue when everybody arrives this weekend, meaning value like (Patriots) -135 or -140 on the money line might be on it's way."

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The low money line in town is at CG Technology books with -142/+122. The high number is -160/+140 at the Golden Nugget downtown.

A traditional 3-point favorite during the NFL's regular season usually translates to -160 on the money line. Super Bowl money lines are notorious for offering value to the favorite because the masses can win more by betting the underdog and books prep for that liability.

As for action on the spread, Whitelaw was questioning why large Atlanta money showed up so early taking +3.

"I don't know what they were thinking," he said regarding sharp plays around town on Atlanta last week. "If they would have waited they could have gotten +3.5. I know that a few of the books were close to making the move, delaying what I think is the inevitable move to -3.5."

I'm with Whitelaw's opinion on how the game will move and who the bulk of the public action will be on.

My main explanation for why sharps played Atlanta early at +3 instead of waiting for +3.5 is because it's part of a larger master plan to seed a few hundred thousand on the Falcons at a few books and then come much larger later on New England -3 at every book.

SMOKESCREEN BETS?

It's the old smokescreen move that would make for a great script in the yet to be produced, or conceived, film "The Sting 3." If they pull it off in the Super Bowl with legal and illegal books alike, it's quite a score, and a really cool story.

These groups know they can get more money down at more books by waiting. Early in the week, heavy Patriots money would have made books jump.

Now there's more money in the pool, including all that Falcons money that kept things fairly balanced.

If Patriots play does come flowing in this weekend with both large groups and the public, we may not even see -3.5 for long.

The big hold at the dam is at -3. Once the books get off -3 and the public keeps betting the Patriots at -3.5 -- which they will because the public rarely cares about the number -- -4 might be in the future as well.

But first, let's just see if it ever gets off -3 before talking about -4. Lots of stories about to unfold real soon and the whales haven't even thrown down their seven-figure wagers yet.

The record total of 59 is holding steady across town with solid action both ways.