2016 Heisman Trophy: Best values and long shots

Last season, the Heisman Trophy race appeared to be a foregone conclusion for several weeks. But the narrative ended up having a surprise ending.

LSU running back Leonard Fournette dominated the first half of the season, and he emerged as an overwhelming 1/3 favorite to win college football’s most prestigious award.

Then, he was thwarted by the Alabama defense. His counterpart, Crimson Tide running back Derrick Henry (who opened at 25/1), replaced Fournette as the Heisman front-runner.

Just when it seemed Henry was the runaway choice, all-purpose back Christian McCaffrey started putting up historic numbers in leading Stanford to the Pac-12 title, while dual-threat quarterback DeShaun Watson did the same to lead Clemson to the national title game.

Henry won by a small margin and headed to the NFL, while Watson, McCaffrey and Fournette returned for this season.

They are among the favorites in odds recently released by William Hill US.

Here are insights and potential value spots based on the opening odds. Let's start by looking at the top-five betting favorites:

DeShaun Watson, Clemson (5/1): Watson hopefully diffused any anti-Clemson media bias by both leading the Tigers to the title game and with his masterful performance against Alabama that came up just short. Watson threw for 4,104 yards and 35 touchdowns, while running for 1,105 yards and 12 scores. He's the most dynamic player returning in college football, the deserved favorite, and should give this wager a good chance at a return.

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford (11/2): The all-purpose back set several single-game yardage marks in leading the Cardinal to a memorable and dynamic run to the Pac-12 title and Rose Bowl win over Iowa. The issue for the Cardinal star this season is that he will be without the supporting cast of veteran quarterback Kevin Hogan and other weapons like wideout Devon Cajuste. Opponents will go all-out to limit McCaffrey, whom I can't see getting close to duplicating last season's numbers. I'd be stunned if he returned as a Heisman finalist, and will pass at this meager price.

Leonard Fournette, LSU (17/2): An immense talent who likely would have been a high NFL draft pick if he were eligible, Fournette rushed for 1,953 yards and 22 touchdowns for the Tigers. Unfortunately for Fournette, his run at the Heisman this season is likely to meet a familiar fate. If he is held in check by a rugged SEC defense and the Tigers lose, he probably will again fall out of contention for the prize. I'd pass on him at these odds.

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (10/1): The Texas Tech transfer came on strong to enter the Heisman conversation last year, before leading the Sooners to the four-team playoff. He thrived in Oklahoma's wide-open system with 3,700 passing yards and 36 touchdowns against just seven interceptions, and added 405 rushing yards and seven more scores. Mayfield likely presents the best value among the top contenders, as he is likely to put up more stunning numbers for a Sooners club that should again be in playoff contention.

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss (12/1): The dual-threat quarterback had a breakout season for Ole Miss that was alternately brilliant and maddening. He threw for 4,042 yards and 31 touchdowns and also rushed for 500 yards and 10 scores. Kelly orchestrated a memorable upset of Alabama, but also had multiple interceptions four times. Similar to the quest of Fournette, the competition level of the SEC will likely keep the Rebels out of the playoff picture and make it a long shot for Kelly to emerge as a Heisman finalist.

Here are a couple players in the mid-range underdog category who could provide excellent value for their price:

J.T. Barrett, Ohio State (14/1): This is the best bargain on the board, at a price that won't last for long. With Cardale Jones and Braxton Miller headed to the NFL, coach Urban Meyer won't have the option of putting the wrong guy on the field, as he did last season when Jones stagnated as starter for half the season. The Buckeyes transformed under the dual-threat explosiveness of Barrett, who threw for 992 yards and 11 touchdowns and rushed for 682 yards and 11 more scores in limited action. He will shine this season, and should be sitting in the front row in New York in December.

Greg Ward Jr., Houston (30/1): Another dynamic dual-threat quarterback, Ward led Houston to a 13-1 record and the AAC title. He didn't get much national recognition until he led the Cougars to a New Year's bowl win in dominating fashion over Florida State. Ward threw for 2,828 yards and rushed for 1,108 yards and 21 touchdowns. He should put up more impressive numbers this season, and should be on the national radar from the get-go.

Jabrill Peppers, Michigan (30/1): Similar to Charles Woodson before him, Peppers has the potential to emerge as a Heisman finalist by contributing on both sides of the ball. As a freshman, he led the secondary from the safety position while also helping to fill a void of explosive playmakers on offense by lining up as a running back and receiver. He picked up just 151 yards form scrimmage and two touchdowns, but should have a bigger role this season.

Here are a couple of serious long shots who could, with strong performances on the field and some good fortune, end up in serious contention:

Adoree' Jackson, USC (50/1): Probably the most explosive player in the Pac-12, Jackson shined as a return man, while also taking snaps at running back, receiver, and in the secondary for the Trojans. Jackson should again be all over the field as a highlight reel waiting to happen, and he could upstage McCaffrey and UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen as the most viable Heisman candidate to emerge from the Pac-12.

Corey Clement, Wisconsin (60/1): Injuries derailed 2015 for Clement, who rushed for 221 yards and five scores in limited action. If the 220-pound bruiser can stay healthy, he is bound to put up huge numbers for a Wisconsin program that has a history of producing prolific backs.