Futures betting guide: What futures are and how to bet them

We explore what futures bets are, how they work and how bettors can approach them

Despite the growth of sports betting markets across the industry, futures betting has remained popular.

Bettors continue to observe the long-standing tradition of putting money into a longshot bet they hope will pay massive dividends down the line, preserved with a magnet on the refrigerator or in a digital wallet inside one of their betting apps and wrapped with anticipation.

Below, we'll discuss future wagers. We'll explain what they are, how to bet them and provide data for your review so individuals can determine whether future betting is worth their time and some of their sports betting bankroll. 

What is a futures bet?

A futures wager is a bet on the long-term outcome of a particular sport, such as placing a wager on the odds for an NFL team to win the Super Bowl or a specific player to win the NBA's Most Valuable Player Award.

In short, it's a bet whose outcome will be determined in the near or distant future, lacking the immediacy of a single-game sports bet that is determined at the end of the contest. For instance, a traditional sportsbook will likely have a portion of its digital betting menu dedicated to futures betting associated with every sport in which the betting outlet accepts action. On a betting app, there will likely be a tab for futures.

There, you will find odds for props betting such as NBA Finals MVP, and any wagers on this proposition will not be decided until the end of the NBA's regular season.  

One drawback of futures wagers is that some bettors prefer to avoid having any significant portion of their bankrolls tied up in an investment with an unknown outcome for an uncertain period of time. But for those who have both the patience and willingness to invest in futures wagers, the payoff can be worth the wait.

There are many examples of futures bettors hitting it big when their long-term prognostication eventually came to fruition. One such example that comes to mind is the 2019 Heisman Trophy odds, which featured a winner who was barely on the radar of oddsmakers and sports bettors alike. LSU quarterback Joe Burrow was coming off a modest first season as the Tigers' starter after transferring from Ohio State, and they were generally viewed as a middling SEC team.

Burrow would lead them to an undefeated season that resulted in a national championship and the widely-held observation that this club is among the greatest in the sport's history.

Even so, the signal-caller wasn't even listed in the Heisman futures odds of most sportsbooks before the season started, and the few that offered wagers on him listed his odds at 100-1 or greater. Following LSU's strong start to the season, Burrow was added to the futures betting menu at most outlets and his opening number was still around 80-1. Eventually, he became the runaway favorite and won the accolade by the highest margin in Heisman voting history. Anyone who had the foresight to predict this outcome cashed in on the return of the lucrative college football futures odds on this wager. 

How do you read futures odds?

Future wagers on sportsbook apps and websites are usually expressed in multiples of $100 per $100 wagered. For instance, if the Houston Texans are offered at 16-to-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, you will generally see this wager offered at +1600 (wager $100 to win $1,600) or simply abbreviated as 16-1 on the menu, particularly for larger numbers.

Oddsmakers use a combination of statistical models and advanced analytical data that includes probability of success or failure for a particular team or individual in order to set sportsbook future odds. Once such odds are released, factors such as trades, injuries and volume of action received on each team or individual can impact futures odds. 

For instance, the Kansas City Chiefs opened the 2024 NFL season with odds of around +600 to win the Super Bowl. If star quarterback Patrick Mahomes were to suffer a season-ending injury in Week 1, those odds would likely plummet to +2500 or steeper given Mahomes' indisputable and irreplaceable value to his team's success.

Futures betting across the major sports

Sportsbook operators have consistently reported that futures betting continues to grow in popularity, especially as some form of legal sports betting is now available in almost every state. The popularity or volume of futures wagers at sportsbooks is generally proportional to the selection of futures odds offered.

Even so, futures to win championships or awards in major sports leagues such as the NFL, NBA and MLB remain popular at sportsbooks worldwide. 

Football 

NFL betting is king among most sports bettors, serious and casual alike, and the same holds true for futures wagers. There are so many ways to get into action and perhaps create profitable hedging opportunities that many football bettors usually invest in at least one or two futures wagers.

One popular football futures wager is the over/under win total for NFL teams, as those who can accurately assess a team's performance trajectory have a chance to cash in on these season-long wagers. For instance, the Cincinnati Bengals had their win total set at 10.5 ahead of the 2024 season. The Over was a popular play considering Cincinnati projected to have one of the top offensive units in the league as well as a relatively modest schedule. However, the Bengals failed to meet expectations and the Under was a winner by Week 11. The Bengals lost 34-27 to the Chargers for their seventh defeat, making 11 wins an impossibility.

The NFL MVP race is also a popular attraction among football futures bettors, because getting the right offseason price on potential candidates could provide a massive profit overlay. For instance, Bills QB Josh Allen was offered in the +900 range before the first 2024 NFL season game kicked off, while Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, already a two-time winner of the award, was priced at around +1600. Both AFC dual-threat quarterbacks quickly emerged as front-runners for the award and, just a couple weeks into the season, were both offered at odds around +200 or lower the rest of the way. Allen would eventually win the honor behind an historic season in which he accounted for 40 total touchdowns and just seven turnovers.

College football betting on futures also presents profitable opportunities. Heisman Trophy futures odds are often a goldmine for savvy bettors, and this axiom paid off for some college football handicappers last season.

Georgia quarterback Carson Beck was the preseason favorite in 2024 with odds of around +600, but he had a disappointing season and quickly fell out of the race. However, a flashy Colorado team had two notable candidates in quarterback Shedeur Sanders (+1000) and two-way star Travis Hunter (+1800).

Those who believed Hunter's playmaking ability on both sides of the ball added value to his Heisman futures odds were proven correct, as he had a standout season and closed as about a -1000 favorite the week votes were taken. Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty was the only true competition for Hunter, and those who backed Hunter could hedge on Jeanty as his odds rocketed to +800 or better the week before votes were tallied. A hedge is when a bettor makes a wager against his or her original bet, allowing the bettor to make up a potential loss on the original bet as odds become favorable on a different outcome.

Basketball

The futures wagering menu for NBA betting and college basketball betting generally isn't quite as elaborate as it is for other sports, but there are still plenty of betting opportunities in basketball future wagers.

The options are somewhat limited for futures betting in college basketball. However, the best odds for the eventual national champion will be found on the NCAA Tournament odds menu long before the iconic competition tips off in late March. For instance, the Connecticut Huskies have won back-to-back national championships in men's basketball in 2023 and 2024, but value-rich future odds have been difficult to come by. However, college basketball handicappers who believed in a UConn repeat performance were able to take advantage of the NCAA Tournament futures odds. The Huskies were priced around +800 for most of the regular season before dropping to about +500 when the brackets were announced on Selection Sunday before ultimately winning it all for the second straight year. 

The NBA futures betting market offers more opportunities. The future odds to win league MVP historically draw action both before and during the season. Versatile Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic has won the award in three of the past four seasons. His primary competition has been eclectic 76ers center Joel Embiid, who is the only player other than Jokic to win the award since the 2020-21 season.

Of course, NBA futures betting odds regularly fluctuate based on short-term performance windows and often see drastic movement as the regular season draws to a close. At various points over the past four seasons, both Jokic and Embiid have been offered at +250 or better within the final month of the season, and savvy analysts in the NBA futures market had the capability of locking in a profit.

For instance, a bettor who wagered $100 on both Jokic and Embiid in the NBA futures market at odds of +300 (wager $100 to win $300) was able to lock in a profit if either player won the award. Such bettors wagered a total of $200 and were guaranteed a return of $400 on the winner for a profit of $200.

Other popular bets in the basketball futures market include odds on Coach of the Year, Rookie of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year. Popular season-long, team-based wagers include odds on every team to make or miss the playoffs, as well as the winner for each division and conference. 

Baseball

Generally speaking, MLB betting tends to rank second to football in sportsbook handle, or percentage of total volume wagered, in the futures betting market. This is primarily because many baseball bettors have found they can find better value with season-long wagers in the baseball futures market as opposed to the arguably more difficult grind of handicapping individual games and withstanding the extreme windows of variance that come with a 162-game regular season.

Sportsbook executives have widely reported that over/under futures bets on the season win totals of MLB teams are the most popular wagers in the MLB futures betting market. This is because sharp baseball minds often believe they can gain an edge by comparing their season-long projections to those of oddsmakers and exploring wagers where there is a significant discrepancy. What's more, a strong position on a win total often allows the handicapper to lock up a profit with hedge opportunities towards the end of the season as a team's fortunes trend in a specific direction.

For example, last season, the New York Yankees were assigned a season win total of 92.5 by oddsmakers, and baseball analysts who wagered on the Over were left in a favorable position. New York notched win No. 92 with six games left in the regular season. It stands to reason most bettors were comfortable with letting this ride knowing just a single victory against the Orioles or Pirates in the final six games would result in their Over wager hitting the winner's circle. However, those who wished to lock up a profit could do so by placing a money line wager on New York's opponents as a hedge against the Yankees logging win No. 93.

Ultimately, the Yankees lost back-to-back games against the Orioles before beating them 10-1 in the final game of a three-game set to clinch the Over on their win total.  Those who chose to hedge would have earned an extra unit by going 2-1 betting against the Yankees before they surpassed 92.5 wins. The Yankees finished with a 94-68 record.

Over/under win totals in MLB are usually released in February, not long after pitchers and catchers report to spring training, and the opening numbers often see movement based on the action before the season starts. Other popular baseball futures wagers include odds on individual players to win the MVP award, the Cy Young Award, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year. Most sportsbooks also offer futures betting odds on the player to lead MLB in home runs and strikeouts. Moreover, futures odds on every team to win the World Series, make or miss the playoffs and division winners are also popular bets in the baseball futures markets. 

Hockey

Hockey has long been considered something of a niche sport, both from the perspective of the overall viewing audience and to that of sportsbook customers. However, hockey fans are extremely loyal to their sport and, as such, the hockey futures betting market has a built-in audience.

Although hockey historically generates the lowest betting volume of any major sport, futures betting odds are offered in a similar structure to other major sports leagues. For example, hockey futures wagers are offered on each team to win the Stanley Cup, to make or miss the playoffs, over/under odds on season point totals and odds to win conferences and divisions.

Perhaps the most popular hockey futures wager comes in the postseason in the form of odds to win the Conn Smythe Trophy, or postseason MVP. Unlike the Super Bowl or NBA Finals, it is more common to see a player on a team that doesn't win the Stanley Cup Final win the MVP award. This dynamic adds value to MVP candidates whose teams aren't necessarily contenders to win the Stanley Cup.

Last season, Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid was the betting favorite at +250 to win the Conn Smythe Trophy before the postseason started, and he was the runaway choice among handicappers in the hockey futures betting market. McDavid ended up winning the coveted accolade despite the Oilers coming up short against the Florida Panthers in a seven-game Stanley Cup Final. 

UFC

The popularity of UFC betting has soared in recent years, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic in which the mixed martial arts giant became the primary spectator sport for countless fans who were clinging to any sort of athletic competition they could find while most major sports went through some measure of mandated shutdowns. In fact, UFC president Dana White has repeatedly asserted that UFC's fanbase grew by at least 70% during the pandemic.  

Even so, the UFC futures betting market is relatively thin. The MMA outfit offers nearly 50 events per year, giving fight fans action to observe and wager on nearly every weekend of the calendar year. Naturally, the most popular wager is a money line bet on a fighter to win his or her matchup, along with over/under odds for total rounds completed during some fights. The high volume of UFC fight cards allows bettors who follow the league to maintain nonstop action  if they choose.

Although the UFC futures betting market is lean, it does exist at sportsbooks like DraftKings and BetMGM. The most common UFC futures wager involves betting outlets offering odds on specific fighters to be their division's champion by the end of the year, or on Dec. 25, 2025.

For instance, top-ranked welterweight challenger Shavkat Rahmonov was priced as a -150 to be the division champion by the end of next year. This price could provide value if you believe Rahmonov will win the title and likely make one successful defense during 2025. This price could fetch better odds than betting him separately as a presumably large favorite in both of those potential fights. However, current champion Belal Muhammad, who entered 2025 on an 11-fight unbeaten streak, was offered at odds of +200 to remain the champion on the last day of 2025. 

Most other sports have some form of futures betting as well. For golf, you might bet on an individual player to win a major. Soccer fans can explore World Cup future bets and tennis experts can place future bets on Wimbledon and other major tournaments. 

Different types of futures betting

There are numerous types of futures wagers. The most popular is called index wagering, which refers to the season-long outcome of a sporting event or award. The other most popular form of futures betting comes in the form of two-way betting, which means you can wager on or against a team or individual's performance. 

Traditional "yes/no" futures

Traditional yes/no wagers remain a staple of the futures wagering menu at most sportsbooks. For instance, you might find an NFL future prop titled, "Will the Dolphins make the playoffs?" with accompanying odds for both outcomes. Yes might be offered at -200, while No is offered at +160.

Over/Under (total) futures bets

These are bets in which oddsmakers provide a line and you can bet the Over or Under. One of the most popular examples of over/under betting is a season-long team win total, but you can also bet on players' statistical outputs before or during the season.

For instance, you can bet on the San Francisco 49ers to win more or less than 10.5 games. Or, you might entertain a wager on the Over or Under for quarterback Brock Purdy's passing yards, which was set at around 3,900 yards before last season at most sportsbooks that offered this wager.

When is the best time to place a futures bet?

Generally speaking, the most lucrative odds for futures wagers on teams or players can be found in the time window furthest away from the outcome becoming decided. For instance, the best value in the NFL futures odds to win the Super Bowl will usually be found in the pre-summer months before the draft is held and any sort of practices or organized team activities have commenced. Once the NFL regular season kicks off and all 32 teams have played, the odds will be adjusted based on the teams' performances and the value in the future odds, or perceptions thereof, will shift accordingly.

Is a futures bet a valuable bet?

Oftentimes, the term "value" lies in the eyes of the bet holder. Many recreational bettors will shamelessly place a futures wager on their favorite team for no reason other than to further assert their loyalty to a specific team or franchise. For instance, a bettor who wagers $10 on Kansas State at +9000 or 90-1 to win next year's college football title is likely aware that the Wildcats realistically stand little chance of making their bet a winner, but the wager itself serves as a souvenir of their fandom.

Real value exists when bettors truly believe based on their own data, research and analysis that the odds on a particular team are richer than what should be offered. For instance, if an NBA futures bettor believes the Celtics should be +200 at best to win the NBA title but the bettor can wager at odds of +400, he or she is getting value in the form of double the implied odds they believe they should be receiving.

Other times, basic math suggests the payout of a futures bet is simply a zero-sum equation relative to other paths of making a similar wager. For instance, when the 12-team CFP field was reduced to the final four, Ohio State was priced at -110 to win the title, and that price was immediately bet to -130 or steeper at most outlets. If you instead chose a money line bet on the Buckeyes in each of the past two games, you'd have been laying odds of about -270 in the semifinals against Texas and about -350 in the final against Notre Dame. A two-game parlay at these odds paid exactly -130, or the same as taking a futures bet on Ohio State prior to the final two games. 

Can you parlay futures bets?

Parlay bets have long been one of the most popular wagers made at sports betting outlets because, almost regardless of betting experience or bankroll, sports bettors are universally drawn to the idea of winning a potentially big windfall while investing with minimal downside.

However, until only recently, parlays weren't a part of the futures betting sphere. This is mostly because sportsbooks didn't want exposure to the potentially massive payouts that would come with allowing futures bettors to parlay wagers that all had lucrative odds.

But eventually, this business practice changed course. A few years ago, some sportsbooks -- mostly those based online -- started allowing the parlay of futures wagers for some sports. For instance, one might be allowed to parlay the Celtics to win the NBA title at +400 with the Chiefs at +600 to win the Super Bowl. This parlay would offer a payout of +3400, or 34-1.

The about-face in policy was a general case of product supply meeting demand, along with a business benefit for the wagering outlets. Sportsbooks get plenty of free marketing on the rare occasions such parlays connect while still holding a significant house edge on such wagers.

Now, some measure of parlaying futures wagers is allowed at the majority of sportsbooks. However, it's worth asking at your preferred outlet because there are still some brick-and-mortar sportsbooks that forbid any sort of parlaying with futures wagers.

FAQ

How are the futures odds determined?

Futures odds are determined based on a variety of factors, including previous results, player movement/injuries and expected team performance. Sportsbooks will adjust futures odds during a particular season based on these factors.

How and when do futures odds move?

Futures odds can move at any time but most changes will occur after game results. For example, if a team goes on a long losing streak, that team's odds on a futures bet to win the championship are likely to suffer. Player trades and injuries will also impact futures odds.

How do sportsbooks make money on futures bets?

Sportsbooks make money on futures bets in a variety of ways. When the Eagles won Super Bowl 59, sportsbooks had to pay out bettors who placed futures wagers on Philadelphia at any point in the season to win. However, sportsbooks likely recouped that amount by collecting futures bets made on the 31 other NFL teams. Another scenario where sportsbooks could make money on futures bets is if a heavy favorite loses. For example, if a team favored to win a championship in its league has a lot of futures bets and that team loses, the sportsbooks don't have to pay out those wagers. Sportsbooks often adjust their futures market depending on wagers coming in to minimize downside should a particular team win.

How do recent games affect futures odds?

There are several factors which impact futures odds, but game results are the most likely to shift the market. In leagues with long seasons like the NBA, college basketball and NHL, game results near the playoffs are seen as a better reflection of a team's form and could move futures odds. Playoff results have the biggest impact on futures odds, as they eliminate some teams from the market entirely while shifting the odds for those still playing.

Is there a minimum or maximum amount you can bet or win on a futures bet?

Unless you are using a promotion or special offer for a futures bet, there are no explicit limits on betting amounts and winnings from futures bets. Some sportsbooks might have limits based on previous futures wagers or could restrict specific users based on their betting history.

Josh Nagel

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