Micah's Picks (2 Live)
Micah's Past Picks
BYU started the season 9-0 but lost two of their last three games to miss the Big 12 championship. They didn't cover their last four games. Colorado covered nine of their last 10 games but lost to Kansas to miss out on the Big 12 championship. Here they are meeting when they didn't even meet in the Big 12 this season. The big news here is that Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter will play even though they will be top three picks in the NFL draft. Colorado's defense got better this year but not as good as BYU's which is 20th in the nation allowing 317 yards per game. The Buffs want to be playing in the Alamo Bowl. Colorado wins this game.
The 9-6 Broncos have the best cover record in the NFL at 11-4 ATS and can clinch a playoff berth with the win today at the Bengals. The 7-8 Bengals are playing their last home game and have the NFL's passing leader in several categories in Joe Burrow. They need the win to just stay alive and then need some help. The Broncos have the No. 8 defense in the NFL averaging 319 yards per game. The Bengals have won three straight. But all those wins were against losing teams and all the Bengals wins on the season have been against losing teams. When they meet a good team they lose, the Broncos are a good team. Broncos to win.
The Hurricanes entered the bowl season with a 10-2 record, the No. 1 in points with 44.2 a game, and total yards with 538 per game. Iowa State comes off a game where they got waxed by Arizona State 45-19. Cam Ward is staying for his team's last game which is a breath of fresh air amid most things going on in the bowls. The problem with the Hurricanes is that they don't cover very often. Just 6-6 ATS. Their defense isn't very good. But the number is short enough to sweat the defensive play in a trade-off for the offense. Miami to cover.
The Chargers are 9-6 this season and have covered the spread 10 out of 15 while staying under nine of 15. They face a trouble spot with the Patriots who are 3-12 but scrappy and dangerous with rookie quarterback Drake Maye. The Patriots have lost five straight but went down to the wire last week at Buffalo 24-21 when they were getting 14 points and they barely lost against the Colts 25-24 3 weeks ago. The Chargers beat the Broncos 34-27 last week. The Chargers have also been playing over the total in four of their last six games compared to a conservative approach earlier in the season. Most of all the Chargers can clinch a playoff berth with the victory. Chargers cover.
Washington State lost their coach Jake Dickert at the end of the season. He's going to Wake Forest and starting quarterback John Mateer is transferring to Oklahoma. If that's not enough to decide who to take in this game 25 Washington State players have entered the transfer portal. Meanwhile, Syracuse can get to 10 wins on the season and they have most of the players playing including Ohio State transfer Kyle McCord who had a great season passing for 4,300 yards. The question is how much Syracuse will pour it on because they can do so. McCord will have a big game and not care that it's against Washington semi-state. Syracuse to cover.
The Seattle Seahawks have lost their last two games to quality opponents and the Chicago Bears have lost their previous nine to eight quality opponents. After that successful Hail Mary by Washington, the losing standard for the rest of the season was set. No wins since after starting 4-2. The only team in that stretch that the Bears should have beat was the Patriots 3 weeks after the Washington game. The Bears can salvage something on their season by knocking the Seahawks out of the playoffs. Kenneth Walker is out for the game. Caleb Williams comes off of perhaps his best game throwing with 334 yards and two touchdowns against Detroit. I expect the Bears to be fired up to knock the Seahawks out.
When LeBron James returned on the 15th to beat the Grizzlies he looked renewed. He gained what he had lost before coming back from injury. Then he exhibited his old leadership skills in two straight wins at Sacramento. He's back, he's very much involved, and he's playing in the spotlight against the struggling Warriors team. They can't get things right with newly acquired Dennis Schroeder who is not playing well and suddenly Steph Curry is not playing well. The Warriors have lost four of their last five, all to good teams but they still lost. I'm seeing positives from the Lakers and sleepiness from the Warriors. Lakers to cover.
The Baltimore Ravens have scored 34 or more points the last two games. They're now 10-5 on the season but more importantly they're 12-3 on the season to the over. This team gets over the total because they move the ball and score as the No. 1 offense in the NFL. They average a league-best seven yards per play. They score 30 points per game which ranks third in the NFL. The Texans don't want to play that style but they're going to have to. Ravens get this game over the total. Merry Christmas to all.
The Minnesota Timberwolves were gaining ground last year and then they lost in the West Finals to the Mavericks 4-1, in fact they've lost five of their last six to the Mavericks. I thought Karl Anthony Towns long distance shooting was bad for the T-Wolves but it worked. Julius Randle doesn’t fit. The Timberwolves have lost three straight to make them 14-14 on the season and I think the problem is a little bit of bad attitude mixed in with entitlement. Minnesota is 11-17 against the spread this year, a complete turnaround from what they were doing last year at the same time. Dallas is 19-10 and 17-11 ATS. Dallas has won and covered their previous two. Mavericks solve the Timberwolves again.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 14-1 on the season and they've covered their last two games after 7 non-covers but I'm taking the Steelers +3 at home against the Chiefs. Am I crazy? I mean, I keep going against the Chiefs, and not too many times I've been successful, but at Pittsburgh, I feel this is the time. The Steelers have lost two straight to the Eagles and the Ravens they seem like they've been beaten and battered but they're ready to take it up a notch rather than falter. Pittsburgh is 10-5 against the spread and they're 5-1 at home. Steelers No. 8 defense with an offense that might get George Pickens back. Pittsburgh is +17 in turnover margin. Merry Christmas, Steelers +3.
The Buccaneers have won four in a row to take them to 8-6 and they've covered nine of those games. They've also gone over nine times, the same as the Cowboys. The Cowboys have gone 1-6 at home this year. But the Cowboys have won three of their last four and four of their last five have gone over. Where the game's going to be won is with the Buccaneers' third-rated offense, which averages 388 yards per game, against the 26th-rated defense of the Cowboys, which allows 356 yards per game. Buccaneers get the win.
The Vikings have a 12-2 record and have been amazing this year going 9-4 against the spread but for this game what's going to stand out is the total that I like under and they've gone 5-9 to the under this season. The Seahawks have won four out of their last five games covering four of them and they've got there from a good defensive play and ball control going under the total six of their last eight games. I think the Seahawks have a good shot at winning the game over the Vikings but I think the better play is the under.
Since winning the Pac-12 and making the Elite-8 in the tournament it's been a bad 3 years for Oregon State going 27-69 but things turned around this year because the starters didn't want to go to the West Coast Conference. They thought they were better than the guys staying even though they had a losing record the last 3 years. And they're playing faster. Only 68 points scored a game last year, this year their average is 76 a game. They're shooting 49% from the field but maybe best of all they're 8-2 on the season and 9-0 against the spread. This game gets over.