Jack Flaherty has failed to clear this plus-odds player prop line in 80% of his starts this season. …

Spencer Strider has yet to clear this player prop line in his two starts this season. …

Bet365 @ -115. Coming off an unexpected blowout in which all of the Thunder starters saw reduced minutes, I’m expecting the team to bounce-back. One of whom is Jalen Williams - despite a 6 rebound plus assist performance in Game 3, he’s still cleared this line in ten of fourteen playoff games.

DraftKings. Chris Paddack has been pitching better of late, but he’s still under this outs line in eight of his ten starts. He remains inefficient with his workload, needing 4.01 pitches per plate appearance (30th highest out of 133 qualifiers). The Rays have six hitters in their lineup who see above average pitches per plate appearance, and Tampa as a team is hot at the plate, with an .810 OPS versus righties over the last week. Great hitting conditions on a hot, muggy night at Steinbrenner Field as well.

FanDuel. Dylan Cease has cleared this strikeout prop line in eight of his ten starts, including a seven punch out performance earlier this season against the Braves. His overall production has been up and down, but he’s coming off three straight stellar performances. I expect the Padres to lean on Cease for as many innings as possible, given the impromptu bullpen day yesterday.

FanDuel. This is a great spot for Tarik Skubal. He’s cleared this in seven of his last nine games, including each of the last five. He’s surpassed eleven strikeouts in each of his last three home starts. And Skubal gets a very watered down Guardians lineup today - six hitters with a 27.5% K% or worse against lefties this season. And one who doesn’t, Carlos Santana, Skubal has had success striking out (6 Ks in 17 PAs).

DraftKings. The Angels are surging, having won their last eight games. The right-handed heavy lineup will face Cal Quantrill to start tonight’s contest. Quantrill has been bad (6.37 ERA, 5.66 xERA), while allowing righties to hit 31/79 against him, with a 1.062 OPS. Jose Soriano has been excellent the first two times through the opposing batting order (.677 OPS allowed), and his elite ground ball rate should play well today. Miami is hitting to a .689 OPS against ground ball pitchers. The Marlins also rank second to last with just 1.29 runs in the first five innings in away games.

Caesar’s / DraftKings. Cason Wallace has emerged as a vital piece for the Thunder this series. The Timberwolves have more backcourt ball-handlers than the Nuggets utilized, leading to Wallace’s uptick in minutes as a point of attack defender. Wallace has played 28 and 33 minutes this series, leading OKC’s bench unit. The books seem to be undervaluing Wallace’s updated role, especially since the point guard averaged 10.9 points plus assists in the regular season, in 27.6 minutes per game. Wallace has cleared this total in 20 of the last 25 games he’s played between 22 and 34 minutes, including 10 and 12 P+A performances so far this series.

DraftKings. Jack Leiter is coming off three consecutive starts clearing this outs line. He’ll now get the White Sox, who continue to struggle at the plate (75 wRC+ and .625 OPS versus righties is the worst mark in baseball over the last two weeks). Where Leiter can struggle is with his control, but the White Sox have the second lowest walk rate as a team.

Caesar’s. Sandy Alcantara has yet to regain his Cy Young form from before his elbow injury. He’s failed to clear this line in eight of his nine starts this season, while pitching to a 7.99 ERA (5.31 xERA). While his pitch velocity and movement has regained form, his issue stems from pitch location. His chase rate is down more than 10% versus his prior two full seasons, and FanGraphs’ location+ metric is also down about 10%. I like the Angels, who own MLB’s ninth lowest chase rate, to drive up his pitch count today. The Halos see the ninth most pitches per plate appearance, and are hitting well: 121 wRC+ and a .785 OPS over the last two weeks versus righties.

FanDuel. After a run of very difficult matchups to start this season, Matt Boyd has cleared this strikeout total in each of his last four appearances. Overall, he’s accrued 53 punch outs in 51.1 innings - and finally fully healthy this season, he’s pitching deep into ballgames. I like the matchup today, as the Reds struggle against left handed pitching, with a 24.6% strikeout rate and only a .623 OPS (both are ninth worst in baseball).

DraftKings. Jalen Williams has now cleared this combined line in nine of the Thunder’s 12 playoff games. He’s also surpassed this total in two of three regular season matchups against Minnesota, and he’s coming off an 8-rebound, 5-assist performance in game 1. I like him to continue to stuff the stat sheet in game 2 - especially as the Thunder have been featuring more small-ball lineups. I’m also expecting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s usage rate to normalize a bit (39.5% in Game 1), which should open up some more opportunities for Williams.

Caesar’s. After a muted Game 1 performance, Anthony Edwards has now failed to clear this line in four of five games against the Thunder. The one over came in a game where the Wolves were without both Julius Randle and Donte DiVencenzo. The trio of Lu Dort, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso have put the clamps on Edwards in each matchup (Ant Man has shot 11/31 against the trio across all five games). I’m tacking on assists too, as the potential assists are largely reliant on the Wolves making three pointers. Overall, the Thunder have excelled at defending the opposing number one option, and I expect that to continue tonight.

DraftKings. Tanner Bibee has yet to clear this strikeout total in any of his nine starts. Yet, we’re gifted a line of 5.5 in what I see as a below average matchup for the Guardians starter. Bibee is not generating the swinging strikes this season (15th percentile - 8.1% versus 12.2% last season), And this is a Tigers team that doesn’t allow many called strikes (5th fewest as a team). Bibee also does not have a strong strikeout history against this lineup - it’s an easy fade for me.

FanDuel. Rangers Suarez has cleared this line in two of his three starts this season. After missing the beginning of the season to injury, he’s worked up to a full pitch count, throwing 98 in his last outing. He’ll now face the Rockies who have baseball’s highest strikeout rate against lefties (28.8% - and 28% at home). Targeting a pitcher over at Coors can be scary, but Suarez is a groundball merchant, who should be able to limit the damage from the Rockies, who own a pitiful .624 OPS at home versus southpaws as is.