Julius Randle has failed to clear this player prop line in each of the Wolves’ six playoff games. …

Brandon Pfaadt has a tough assignment against the Dodgers tonight. …

DraftKings / Caesar’s. Dean Kremer is coming off a strong start against the Royals at home, but he’s struggled in the rest of his starts. He’s failed to reach six innings in six of seven outings, pitching to a 5.73 ERA (5.21 xERA). His underlying metrics are rough as well: a .288 expected batting average is in the fifteenth percentile of all pitchers. And he’s been brutal on the road with an 8.17 ERA. To top it off, opponents are hitting 16/38 with three home runs, the third time through the order (1.173 OPS). The Twins are a patient team (4.0 pitches per plate appearance is second most), and are hitting well of late (.736 OPS and 111 wRC+ versus righties the last two weeks).

FanDuel. Christian Braun has been the unsung hero for the Nuggets in these playoffs. Playing upwards of 38 minutes per night in the tight Denver rotation, Braun has cleared this line in four of the last five playoff games, and 19 of the last 27 overall games with a fully healthy Nuggets starting five. He’s also exceeded this line in all five games against the Nuggets this season. Jamal Murray has a brutal individual matchup, and I do expect the Thunder to adjust their coverages towards Nikola Jokic. With Michael Porter Jr. clearly less than 100% health-wise, I love Braun to be the beneficiary of Jokic’s playmaking.

FanDuel at -102. There’s enough variables here for me to take the under on Sanchez’s outs prop. He did make it out of his last start unscathed, but I doubt they push him much past 90 pitches with the arm soreness issue lingering. The bullpen is fresh, and the Rays are one of the more patient teams in baseball (9th most pitches per plate appearance and the 8th lowest chase rate). Sanchez has historically been significantly less effective and efficient on the road, and this is a stadium in which he’s never pitched a regular game.

DraftKings. Jrue Holiday is coming off a 16-point effort in Game 1, in which he showed no ill-effects from his injury (34 regulation minutes, 39 total minutes). Holiday was the beneficiary of a defense that was designed to leave him open, with Jalen Brunson defending him. Holiday took advantage by cutting to the basket freely. It’s a strategy that’s worked for Holiday and the Celtics all season, as Jrue has scored at least 14 points in each of the four matchups with the Knicks. Even with Kristaps Porzingis likely playing a full workload tonight - I do like Holiday to continue to thrive in his role. I’d bet this up to over 10.5 points at -105 or better.

DraftKings. Kodai Senga has only cleared this line in three of his six starts, but does have four strikeouts in each start. After a slow ramp up, he’s now working under no pitch limitations. He’ll get the Diamondbacks again (6 strikeouts in his last outing) - Arizona strikes out more against righties (22.3% over the last two weeks is the tenth highest mark in baseball). And with Arizona likely starting 6-7 left handed hitters, Senga should be able to unleash his forkball at will. Thirteen of the last 15 non-opener righties have cleared this line against the D-Backs. I’d bet this up to -150.

DraftKings. Sonny Gray has cleared this line in four of his six fully stretched out starts. One miss was in his last outing against the potent Mets lineup, while the other was due to being pulled after 71 pitches on a freezing day against these Pirates. Gray pitched very well in that start, only allowing three hits and one run over five innings, and has traditionally had success against this Pirates lineup. Pittsburgh has had plenty of offensive woes this season - they’re at an 82 wRC+ and .638 OPS against righties over the last 2 weeks.

DraftKings. David Peterson has failed to clear this line in four of his six starts. He hasn’t earned his manager’s trust the third time through the batting order, having allowed an .869 OPS and being pulled at less than 90 pitches the last two outings. This includes his last start against the Diamondbacks, who were patient with Peterson, averaging 4.2 pitches per plate appearance. Now at home, I’ll back the Diamondbacks offense to break through. I’d bet this down to under 16.5 outs.

DraftKings. Chris Sale started the season slow, but has acquitted himself well over his last two starts. Overall, he’s cleared this line in four pf his seven starts, including three of the last four. His underlying metrics have been there this season, with a 30% called plus swinging strike rate, and an xERA of 3.31 - I’m not put off by his 4.84 ERA. And he gets a Reds lineup that’s league average producing against lefties. I’d bet this up to -145.

DraftKings. Simply put, this is the exact situation where Jimmy Butler is going to come out swinging (hopefully not literally). He’s cleared this line in three of the four full games he’s played in, and I expect him to be on the floor for 40+ minutes once again. He’s been able to get to the free throw line at will against the bigger Rockets front line, and the Warriors will lean on him and Steph Curry once again. I’d bet this up to over 23.5 points.

DraftKings. After a series against the Heat where Jarrett Allen cleared this line in 3/4 games in a tougher matchup against the Heat, the Cavs big man has a decidedly easier spot against the Pacers. Indiana ranked 26th against roll men in the pick and roll this season, and allowed the tenth most rebounds. Allen has cleared this line in 29/44 games playing at least 26 minutes with both Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley active.

DraftKings. After an exhilarating finish to the series against the Bucks, I’m expecting Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers to come back down to earth a bit in the series against the Cavs. Haliburton struggled on the road all season, staying under this combined points, rebounds and assists line in 26/38 away games, averaging 29.3 PRA (including the playoffs). This includes 9/11 against teams in the top 10 of pick and roll defense. The Cavs ranked 4th in that department this season, and are coming off a series where they held Tyler Herro in check for three of four games. I’d bet this one down to under 32.5 PRA.

Caesar’s. Bowden Francis has really struggled this season. Pitching to a 5.28 ERA and a 7.45 expected ERA, his 51% hard hit rate sits in the fifth percentile. He’s remained under this line in four of six starts this season, with lefties registering a 1.016 OPS against him. The Guardians will stack lefties today, likely starting six to seven. Even with Joseph Ramirez likely sitting, I don’t see Francis with a lot of leeway the third time through the batting order. The bullpen is fresh and the Blue Jays have an off day tomorrow.

FanDuel (1.2 betting units for me). Garrett Crochet has cleared this strikeout line in four of his seven starts this season, with two of those misses against the Blue Jays, who have the sixth lowest strikeout rate against lefties. Today’s matchup, the Twins, have the third highest strikeout rate against lefties thus far (26.9%), with a measly .613 OPS against southpaws. There are some minor weather concerns, but it does look like we should avoid any in-game delays.