FanDuel. Matthew Liberatore has broken out for the Cardinals this season. The former top prospect is pitching to a 2.73 ERA across ten starts (one rain shortened), with a 2.96 expected ERA. His strikeout metrics are average - 21.5% is in the 46th percentile, but he’s pitching deep enough into games to have cleared this line in five of nine full starts. Of those nine full starts, only two games have come against a team in the top half of strikeout percentage versus lefties (both against the Pirates, who he carved up for seven and eight strikeouts). The rangers have the third highest strikeout rate against lefties, and have struggled to hit them all season (.590 OPS, 68 wRC+).

DraftKings. Lucas Giolito has cleared this outs line in three of his five starts this season. Despite that, I’m fading him tonight in a rematch against the Braves, who shelled the Red Sox starter for eight hits and six runs over only four innings less than two weeks ago. The Braves bats have been hot, with an .819 OPS and 130 wRC+ against righties over the last two weeks. And they are patient; the Braves command 3.96 pitches per plate appearance - the fourth highest mark in baseball. GIolito’s slider has been flatter since coming back from his UCL reconstruction, and pitching on models are lower on him: he’s at an 89 per FanGraphs’ stuff+ metric - big drop from his 101 career average.

DraftKings. This prop is a bit juicy, but I’m willing to pay the price on. Christopher Sanchez today. The lefty has cleared this line in seven of ten starts, including all five at home. The Braves have struggled more against left-handed pitching all season, and that’s continued recently. Over the last month, the Braves are running a 25.2% strikeout rate against southpaws, with a .621 OPS. I’d bet this line up to -157.

FanDuel. After an underwhelming 2025 debut against the Astros, I’m fading George Kirby on his strikeout prop tonight. He traditionally has been an average strikeout rate pitcher (50th percentile last season), and I doubt the Mariners push him too far into this game, after failing to make it out of the fourth inning against the Astros. And this is a tougher matchup, as the Nationals own the eighth lowest strikeout rate against right handed pitching this season (20.3%).

FanDuel at -122. For the third straight Sandy Alcantara start, I’m fading his outs prop, set at 17.5. He’s now failed to clear this line in nine of ten starts, while pitching to an 8.04 ERA (5.03 xERA). Pitching on four days rest for only the second time this season, and coming off three straight games with at least 100 pitches thrown, the Marlins could also be inclined to put a soft limit on their former Cy Young ace, with an off day scheduled for tomorrow. San Diego does have five lefties in the lineup (Alcantara’s worse split for pitch efficiency), and five total players who see above average pitches per plate appearance.

DraftKings. Brayan Bello has remained under this outs line in five of his seven starts. He’s struggled with his command - his 58.1% strike rate would be the worst amongst starting pitchers, if he qualified. And this has lead to 4.05 pitches per plate appearance (would be bottom 18th percentile). He gets the Brewers today, who will sport six hitters in their lineup who see above average pitches per plate appearance, and have the fifth lowest chase rate as a team. The Red Sox bullpen did have to throw seven innings yesterday, but with an off-day tomorrow, they should be in good enough shape.

FanDuel. I’m going back to the Hunter Brown strikeout well in his matchup against the Athletics. While he struggled in hitting conditions at Tampa in his last start, he had notched exactly nine strikeouts in each of his previous five starts. The matchup against the A’s is tough on paper, but Sacramento is starting a few more strikeout prone rookies in hopes of jumpstarting their lineup.

DraftKings. Coming off a UCL injury that sidelined him for most of 2024, Spencer Strider hasn’t quite looked like his dominant self yet. In two starts (with a hamstring injury mixed in), he’s only struck out eight batters in 9.1 innings. He’s shown diminished velocity on both his fastball and slider resulting in a significant drop of his whiff rate. He’ll now face a Phillies lineup that’s run a 19% strikeout rate versus righties this season, and a solid 26% strikeout rate against power pitchers.

Caesar’s. Jack Flaherty has failed to clear this line in eight of ten starts. Five times he’s been pulled in the sixth inning, mainly due to his struggles the third time through the batting order (opponents with a 1.024 OPS). And at 4.16 pitches per plate appearance (seventh highest amongst 131 qualifiers), Flaherty’s pitch count does tend to run high. That should play today against the Giants, who run the fourth highest pitches per plate appearance as a team. Their platoon against right handed pitching likely has seven hitters who are above average in that metric in the lineup. With Flaherty on four days rest, and having thrown a season high 108 pitches in his last start, he could be on a tighter leash today.

Bet365 @ -115. Coming off an unexpected blowout in which all of the Thunder starters saw reduced minutes, I’m expecting the team to bounce-back. One of whom is Jalen Williams - despite a 6 rebound plus assist performance in Game 3, he’s still cleared this line in ten of fourteen playoff games.

DraftKings. Chris Paddack has been pitching better of late, but he’s still under this outs line in eight of his ten starts. He remains inefficient with his workload, needing 4.01 pitches per plate appearance (30th highest out of 133 qualifiers). The Rays have six hitters in their lineup who see above average pitches per plate appearance, and Tampa as a team is hot at the plate, with an .810 OPS versus righties over the last week. Great hitting conditions on a hot, muggy night at Steinbrenner Field as well.

FanDuel. Dylan Cease has cleared this strikeout prop line in eight of his ten starts, including a seven punch out performance earlier this season against the Braves. His overall production has been up and down, but he’s coming off three straight stellar performances. I expect the Padres to lean on Cease for as many innings as possible, given the impromptu bullpen day yesterday.

FanDuel. This is a great spot for Tarik Skubal. He’s cleared this in seven of his last nine games, including each of the last five. He’s surpassed eleven strikeouts in each of his last three home starts. And Skubal gets a very watered down Guardians lineup today - six hitters with a 27.5% K% or worse against lefties this season. And one who doesn’t, Carlos Santana, Skubal has had success striking out (6 Ks in 17 PAs).

DraftKings. The Angels are surging, having won their last eight games. The right-handed heavy lineup will face Cal Quantrill to start tonight’s contest. Quantrill has been bad (6.37 ERA, 5.66 xERA), while allowing righties to hit 31/79 against him, with a 1.062 OPS. Jose Soriano has been excellent the first two times through the opposing batting order (.677 OPS allowed), and his elite ground ball rate should play well today. Miami is hitting to a .689 OPS against ground ball pitchers. The Marlins also rank second to last with just 1.29 runs in the first five innings in away games.

Caesar’s / DraftKings. Cason Wallace has emerged as a vital piece for the Thunder this series. The Timberwolves have more backcourt ball-handlers than the Nuggets utilized, leading to Wallace’s uptick in minutes as a point of attack defender. Wallace has played 28 and 33 minutes this series, leading OKC’s bench unit. The books seem to be undervaluing Wallace’s updated role, especially since the point guard averaged 10.9 points plus assists in the regular season, in 27.6 minutes per game. Wallace has cleared this total in 20 of the last 25 games he’s played between 22 and 34 minutes, including 10 and 12 P+A performances so far this series.