Can Isaiah Hartenstein make it seven straight games clearing this player prop line? …

FanDuel. With Steph Curry still sidelined, Steve Kerr has finally unleashed Jonathan Kuminga as a supplemental scorer to Jimmy Butler. Outside of Butler, Kuminga is the only other Warrior capable of generating his own offense, something that’s necessary against a Wolves defense that limits off-ball action. And even though I’m “buying high” on Kuminga, this is a line he’s regularly cleared given the opportunity. The athletic wing has cleared this line in 15/23 games this season when playing at least 26 minutes, regardless of who else suits up alongside him. Even if he doesn’t start, his playing time should clear the 30-minute mark (36 last game, and Kerr would be foolish not to play him).

FanDuel at under 16.5 outs @-118 - OK to under 15.5. Freddy Peralta has put together an excellent start to 2025, pitching to a 2.18 ERA (2.97 xERA). However the Brewers ace struggles with his pitch efficiency. Peralta is under 16.5 outs in five of his eight starts, and his 4.13 pitches per plate appearance is the 14th highest out of 134 qualifiers. Those struggles have been magnified on the road where Peralta is under this line in four of five starts (the one over was against the White Sox), with an 11.6% walk rate and 4.18 pitches per plate appearance. And the kicker here is that Peralta tweaked his groin in his last outing, causing this start to be pushed back a few days.

FanDuel. Evan Mobley came back after missing Game 2 with an injury to record 18 points and 13 rebounds in Game 3 (35 minutes). It marks the fourth time in four games he’s cleared 27.5 points plus rebounds against the Pacers this season. It’s a plus matchup for Mobley against the smaller Pascal Siakam, and I anticipate Cleveland needing to lean on Mobley more with Darius Garland clearly not 100% healthy. In fact, against teams outside the top 12 in restricted area defense this season (Pacers were 20th), Mobley cleared this line in 31 of 47 games.

FanDuel. Isaiah Hartenstein has cleared this line in all three games this series, and in all five games against the Nuggets this season. The Thunder need him on the floor defensively against Nikola Jokic, and his presence as a roll-man in the pick and roll allows the Thunder to expose the Nuggets weak interior defense (Denver ranked 27th against roll-men this season). Look for Hartenstein to bounce-back after a rough 5/14 shooting performance.

DraftKings. Bet it to -160. I’ll lay a little juice here to buy on Pablo Lopez’ recent strikeout surge. He’s cleared this line in each of his last four starts, and is coming off an 11-strikeout performance against the Orioles. He now gets the Giants who own a 25.7% strikeout rate in away games against righties this season (across 569 plate appearances, the sixth highest mark).

DraftKings / BetMGM. Tylor Megill has only cleared this line in one of his seven starts, and that was against the free-swinging Nationals. The Cubs are more patient - they rank 12th in pitches per plate appearance, and have the ninth lowest chase rate. Megill has solid stuff, but is 131st in zone percentage out of 168 pitchers with at least 20 innings thrown. And Megill also sees his production decline each time through the order, resulting in quick hooks the third time through.

FanDuel. Logan Webb, one of the most under-appreciated pitchers in baseball, is once again putting together a strong season. Pitching to a 2.61 ERA (2.86 xERA). With 56 strikeouts in 48.1 innings, Webb has cleared this line in six of his seven fully stretched out starts. His 28.7% strikeout rate is a career high, and due in part to his tweaked changeup. Particularly dominant against righties (30.7% strikeout rate), he should have no issue today racking up the strikeouts today. The Twins will start 5-6 righties today, and are in the top 12 of strikeout rate and called plus swinging strike rate over the last two weeks.

DraftKings. Hunter Brown has vaulted to the front of the AL Cy Young race: pitching to a 1.67 ERA, he’s racked up 49 strikeouts in 43 innings (clearing this total in 5/7 starts). He now gets the Reds who have a 23.7% K% versus righties in away games, and own the sixth highest called plus swinging strike rate as a team. Facing a righty in an away game coming off travel, the Reds have struggled: Logan Webb pitched 7 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts, Max Meyer had 14 strikeouts over 6 scoreless frames, and AJ Smith-Shawver just carved the Reds up for 8 shutout innings with 5 punch-outs. I’d bet this up to -155.

B365 @ -120. Andrew Nembhard is on fire right now, notching at least 21 points plus assists in six of his seven playoff games, including 29 and 26 against the Cavs. His role is very secure (36 minutes in each game against Cleveland, despite eight turnovers last game), and he benefited from added coverage on Haliburton with a 25% usage rate in Game 2.

DraftKings. Brandon Pfaadt has allowed at least six hits in four of seven starts, including consecutive nine-hit outings. Now he has the unenviable task of facing the Dodgers, who own a collective .262 batting average against righties (.299 over the last two weeks). Pfaadt has faced this lineup plenty, allowing eight of the nine hitters in today’s lineup to hit an evenly distributed .300 against him (18/80). With the Diamondbacks in the middle of stretch of 16 days with no days off, I expect Pfaadt, who has always been afforded a longer leash, to pitch deeper into this game, for better or worse.

Caesar’s. Julius Randle has failed to clear this line in each of the Wolves’ six playoff games. When playing alongside Rudy Gobert, against teams that were outside the bottom 10 of allowing rebounds plus assists to forwards (Warriors were 11th best this season), Randle averaged 10.8 rebounds plus assists across 52 games. With Steph Curry out for this game, the Warriors likely dial down the pace and look to muck this game up. I have Randle projected at 10.7 R+A.

DraftKings / Caesar’s. Dean Kremer is coming off a strong start against the Royals at home, but he’s struggled in the rest of his starts. He’s failed to reach six innings in six of seven outings, pitching to a 5.73 ERA (5.21 xERA). His underlying metrics are rough as well: a .288 expected batting average is in the fifteenth percentile of all pitchers. And he’s been brutal on the road with an 8.17 ERA. To top it off, opponents are hitting 16/38 with three home runs, the third time through the order (1.173 OPS). The Twins are a patient team (4.0 pitches per plate appearance is second most), and are hitting well of late (.736 OPS and 111 wRC+ versus righties the last two weeks).

FanDuel. Christian Braun has been the unsung hero for the Nuggets in these playoffs. Playing upwards of 38 minutes per night in the tight Denver rotation, Braun has cleared this line in four of the last five playoff games, and 19 of the last 27 overall games with a fully healthy Nuggets starting five. He’s also exceeded this line in all five games against the Nuggets this season. Jamal Murray has a brutal individual matchup, and I do expect the Thunder to adjust their coverages towards Nikola Jokic. With Michael Porter Jr. clearly less than 100% health-wise, I love Braun to be the beneficiary of Jokic’s playmaking.

FanDuel at -102. There’s enough variables here for me to take the under on Sanchez’s outs prop. He did make it out of his last start unscathed, but I doubt they push him much past 90 pitches with the arm soreness issue lingering. The bullpen is fresh, and the Rays are one of the more patient teams in baseball (9th most pitches per plate appearance and the 8th lowest chase rate). Sanchez has historically been significantly less effective and efficient on the road, and this is a stadium in which he’s never pitched a regular game.