Bruce's Picks (2 Live)
Does the marketplace need any more convincing on the Pacers? ...
Bruce's Past Picks
The key for the Warriors isn't necessarily winning this series without Steph Curry (hamstring), it's staying alive until he can return. No one is sure of Steph's status beyond tonight. He's slated to be re-evaluated before Game 5. We're thinking if the Dubs win tonight, it might be Game 6 when we next see him. In the meantime, Golden State succeeded somewhat in turning Game 3 into a grinder, though in the end just short thanks to Ant Edwards and Julius Randle (combined 60 points) on the T-wolves side. But Jonathan Kuminga (30 points on Saturday) is emerging for Steve Kerr as a viable alternative to Jimmy Butler, and a similar pace to Saturday keeps the Warriors close again. Play Warriors.
Instead of all the guff the Celtics have endured in this series, maybe it's the Knicks who should be put under the microscope. Not just because the Celtics righted themselves with a thumping road win at MSG in Game 3; the Knicks have been behind by at least 20 in every game (and 30+ in Game 3), the offense firing fired on all cylinders only in brief spurts. FG percentage is down, barely 40% the past two games, in which three-point shooting has been especially wretched (just 14 for 56; 25%). Meanwhile, Boston suffered no collapse in Game 3 as it hit 50% from beyond the arc (20 of 40) after struggling at 25% from deep the first two games. Play Celtics.
We're still waiting for this series to explode, but in the meantime overs have nonetheless cashed in 2 of the 3 games (we suspect very few lost with the over in game 3). This series has yet to be as high-scoring as the regular-season meetings but Boston at least looked like it was getting back to normal in Saturday's 115-93 romp, hitting 50% from deep after laboring at 25% across the first two games at MSG, even as Jayson Tatum still mostly misfiring. Meanwhile the Knicks should have an extra gear or two from what we've seen the past two games, scoring just 93 ppg. Note playoff overs are on a 22-10 run after Sunday's action. Play Celtics-Knicks Over
Seven miserable minutes of the second quarter did in the Pacers in Game Three, when a 24-7 Cavs run into halftime that blew open a close game. As it was, Indiana still hinted at making a run into the 4th Q before Cleveland repelled the threat. The Pacers still hold the upper hand 5-2 this season over Cleveland, and Gs Tyrese Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard, who had been combining for roughly 36 ppg in the postseason, aren't likely to be held to 14 points again as on Friday (Halliburton scoring only 4). Donovan Mitchell is doing yeoman's work for Cleveland with 91 points across the past two games, but it's expecting a bit much of him to continue at that pace, no? Play Pacers
This series is at the vanguard of the NBA over trend in the playoffs, landing that way in each of the first three games. Which can happen when both teams want to play fast. Indiana's problem in Game Three on Friday was not related to the pace as it was its inaccuracy and not getting the usual production from contributors such as Tyrese Haliburton, the star of Games 1 & 2 but hardly as much on Friday when only scoring 4s. The Pacers had scored 117 or more in six of seven previous postseason games. Nothing wrong with Cleveland's offense in the playoffs, either, scoring 123 ppg in its previous seven games in this postseason. Note playoff overs on a 21-9 run. Play Cavs-Pacers Over
Trendlines in this matchup have been identifiable; when OKC wins, it's usually a blowout (27 ppg, counting reg season), but when Denver wins, it's close under (6 ppg). We've seen this trend already in this series with the Nuggets winning a couple of nailbiters in Games 1 & 3 while the Thunder rolled up a 43-point blowout in Game 2. As it was Denver needed some late heroics again from Aaron Gordon to force the OT in game 3, but with a thinner bench there are not as many options for the Nuggets if one of their big guns should have an off night. If liking the Thunder, don't worry about the spread...it hasn't mattered when beating Denver. Play Thunder
When shorthanded, Warriors games either go pear-shaped (as in Game 2) or turn into grinders, where they can flourish. What do we get in Game 3 tonight? With Steph Curry apparently out at least these next two games at Chase Center because of his hamstring tweak, Steve Kerr's troops are going to try to grind again as in Game One. Ant Edwards, playing on a sore ankle, might be at less than 100% for Minnesota as well. Kerr's secret weapon on Saturday might be Jonathan Kuminga, who saw his most floor time in the postseason in Thursday's 117-93 loss, and contributed a team-high 18 points. Now-Batman Jimmy Butler is looking for someone to assume his Robin role, and it could be Kuminga. Play Warriors
Missing a staggering 75 triples across the first two games is a monument to wastefulness, but Boston can do a lot better, especially Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who combined have missed 58 shots across the pair of losses to the Knicks at TD Garden. A bit better efficiency by each and the Celtics lead this series 2-0 instead of trailing 2-0. As for the Knicks, they haven't exactly been burning the nets, either, a tick below 43% from the floor themselves, instead relying upon the numbing inaccuracy of the Celtics to fuel their comebacks. Lightning has already struck twice in this series; could it possibly do so a third time in a row? Play Celtics
This series hasn't been as high scoring as we thought but expect that to start changing as the venue shifts to MSG. It took an overtime for Game 1 to chug past 212.5 but no such luck in Game 2 that fell well, well short in the Knicks' 91-90 win. Some staggering offensive inefficiency by the three-point happy Celtics, who have missed an astounding 75 triples across the first two games, have artificially held down the scorelines. Neither team has shot well from the floor (the Knicks are a tick under 43% FGs themselves thru the first two games) and suspect the scoreline is about to break loose in Game 3, and follow the recent NBA playoffs over pattern (20-8 run). Play Celtics-Knicks Over
We're not sure the zig-zag is going to work again in this series after. OKC suggested it is about to take control in that 149-106 rout (and it wasn't that close) on Wednesday. Though Nikola Jokic can be granted an occasional mulligan, Denver needs at least one and probably two of its "others" (Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr, Russell Westbrook) besides Jamal Murray to make significant contributions, and not go a combined 6 for 28 as the case with Gordon-Porter-Braun in Game 2. Meanwhile, SGA was dominant in Game 2 (34 points in just 30 minutes) and got a lot more help from his friends than did the Joker, as the Thunder's edge in this matchup remains its quality depth. Play Thunder
One thing is apparent in this matchup; the Nuggets are hard-pressed to slow down the Thunder. The 149-106 OKC blowout on Wednesday was an extreme example, but the Thunder have been routinely scoring in the 120s vs. Denver this season and have tallied a robust 129 ppg in the last five meetings. OKC's bench has continued to put pressure on the Denver defense, which also had no chance vs. SGA in Game 2 and saw the Thunder hit a blistering 56% from the floor. Also note recent totals patterns for the Nuggets, who have now landed over in five straight playoff games and a big part of the recent league-wide playoff trend (overs 19-7). Play Nuggets-Thunder Over.
The Pacers continue to be discounted in this matchup...but why? For almost two months now, Indiana has posted a better record than Cleveland, and while a repeat of the manner of the Game 2 fightback is unlikely, we suspect the Cavs are in real trouble in this series. Cleveland hasn't been able to control the Indiana offense, or Tyrese Haliburton in the clutch, and this spread seems more reflective of efforts from much earlier in the season. Indiana has now beaten Cleveland five of six this season, and the Cavs' health remains a question, with Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and DeAndre Hunter already missing games in this series. Play Pacers.
That's now four straight and five of six for the Pacers over the Cavs after that improbable Game 2 fightback. The recurring theme in these matchups is the tempo, which has been brisk and to Indiana's liking, with Tyrese Haliburton continuing to rub salt in the Cavs' wounds. The statuses of Cleveland's Darius Garland, DeAndre Hunter, and Evan Mobley, who all missed action in this series, further compromise the myriad defensive issues of the Cavs. Thus another another over might be in order, as it has hit in the first two games of this series as the Pacers in particular remain adept at forcing the pace. Overs are also on a 19-7 playoff run after last night's Warriors-Wolves action. Play Cavs-Pacers Over