It's back! We're talking about the old “NBA Playoff Zig-Zag” which has resurfaced in a meaningful way this postseason; teams that have lost outright the previous game are +19 against the spread in the subsequent outing. In Games 3, 4, and 5 in this series, it’s worked, and most insiders seem willing to give Indiana at least a semi-mulligan for its poor showing on Thursday night. Game 5 looks to have been a substantial outlier for the Pacers, as Tyrese Haliburton (only 7 points on 2-for-7 FG shooting), Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, and Myles Turner could only combine for 14 points, with eight turnovers...it’s a surprise Indy only lost by 17! The real Pacers should show up tonight and close out this series. Play Pacers

Rest assured the combative Knicks, with Jalen Brunson and KAT, are going to die hard, but if playoff trendlines continue, the good version of Indy shows up and closes out this series, as it also did last May vs. New York. Totals-wise, the “good Pacers” play fast (which they didn’t on Thursday and should also make it tougher for Tom Thibodeau to slow the pace and keep this scoreline under as in three of the last four games. Note the last time a total was posted beneath 220 in this series, Game 4 exploded, and most of the recent history between these sides has featured scorelines into the 220s. No surprise if this game more resembles that Game 4 from Tuesday night. Play Knicks-Pacers Over

The Knicks are in trouble, but they only need to win one game--not three--on Thursday to stay alive. Still some real concerns for NY, including the supposed edge of playing at Madison Square Garden. Even Spike Lee can't explain the Knicks' 3-5 straight-up mark at home in these playoffs, which includes NY losses in Games 1 & 2 of this series. Now there is worry about the condition of Karl-Anthony Towns, dealing with a knee contusion. We suspected from the outset that Indiana's depth would provide the ultimate advantage vs. the Knicks, and we've seen nothing in the first four games to change our opinion. The Pacers are well capable of closing out another series in a Game 5 on the road. Play Pacers.

Though Jalen Brunson, who scored another 31 in Game 4, is doing his best, the Knicks are beginning to tire. We saw this in the 4th Q on Tuesday when struggling to get stops vs. the Pacers' onslaught led by Tyrese Haliburton, who posted 32 points, 15 assists, 12 rebounds in Game 4. Still, Rick Carlisle has been getting big buckets throughout the playoffs from others such as Pascal Siakam (his second 30-point game of the series in Game 4), Game 1 hero Aaron Nesmith, Myles Turner, and an assortment of contributors from his bench (on Tuesday it was Bennedict Mathurin with 20 points; Obi Toppin and CJ McConnell have also posted big buckets in this series). Play Pacers-Knicks Over.

Check out this...461-460. That's the total scoreline of this series thru four games, a one-point edge for the Thunder, and suggesting that despite the fact OKC can sew up matters tonight, this series isn't as one-sided as some believe. True, three of the games were one-sided, including OKC's home wins in Games 1 & 2, but even those games weren't one-way traffic all the way, OKC using second-half spurts to pull clear. Minnesota, however, did seem to gain confidence in the games at Target Center, and though losing on Monday, came within 2 points, despite Julius Randle scoring only 5, while the bench contributed 64 points. Meanwhile, can SGA (40 points Game 4) & Jalen Williams (34 points) play any better? Play T-wolves.

The only game of a previous seven landing beneath 218 between these sides this season came in Game One of this series when the T-wolves went ice-cold in the second half. In games 3 and 4, scorelines reached 244 and 254, respectively. The Wolves are having obvious problems slowing down SGA (40 points in game 4) and Jalen Williams (34 points on Monday), hardly keeping scorelines down. Meanwhile, Minnesota scored 126 on Monday even with Julius Randle contributing only 5, suggesting Chris Finch has some other options, including Illinois rookie Terrence Shannon, Jr along with Donte DiVincenzo, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Naz Reid, able to contribute 64 points off the bench in Game 4 and give the Wolves enough options to keep pace. Play Wolves-Thunder Over

The Knicks needed to play a near-perfect 4th Q on Sunday to climb back into this series...can they do it again? NY still mostly rides with Jalen Brunson, though Karl-Anthony Towns scored 20 in a heroic 4th Q on Sunday. The bench depth edge for Indiana, with Rick Carlisle able to go 11-deep, was always likely to begin manifesting more as the series progresses and the Knicks' starters continue to pile up big minutes. Our only hesitation on the Indy side is the condition of Aaron Nesmith, but as long as he's available, expect the Pacers to storm back in Game 4 just as they did off of losses vs. the Bucks and Cavs when playing arguably their best games of those series. Play Pacers.

The Pacers suddenly lost their shooting eyes on Sunday, hitting just 5 of 25 triples, after prior connecting 40% from downtown in the playoffs. Pascal Siakam, the hero of Game 2 with 39 points, was on the wrong end of a -21 +/- rating in Game 3. Those might be just blips on the radar, as Indiana's offense has been mostly potent this postseason. Meanwhile, Karl-Anthony Towns did have his best game of the series for the Knicks on Sunday, scoring 20 in the 4th Q (!). Tom Thibodeau has been able to slow the pace enough for a couple of under results in a row, though most of these meetings this season have been played in the 220s or higher. Play Knicks-Pacers Over

While the Thunder have been consistently thumping foes at the Paycom Center, including the T-wolves in the first two games of this series, on the road in the playoffs it's been a different story. Six games, six spread losses, including that 143-101 Minnesota romp on Saturday. Even in the first round vs. outmanned Memphis, OKC had to scramble just to survive, never mind covering a spread. Minnesota, temporarily at least, rectified some things in Games in Game 3, especially Julius Randle (24 points) involved from the get-go to aid Ant Edwards (30 points), plus four double-digit scorers off of the bench. These teams have now split six meetings this season; on their night, the T-wolves can not only play with, but beat, OKC. Play T-wolves

Save for Game One, when the T-wolves offense stalled in the second half, has this series slowed down. The pattern continued in Minnesota's 143-101 romp on Saturday in Game 3, when it was the Wolves' bench, with four double-digit-scorers, outshining its more ballyhooed OKC counterparts. In the seven meetings between these sides this season, only that Game 1 failed to reach 218 points, with scorelines often landing much higher. Minnesota is capable of the sort of scoring balance it displayed on Saturday, when Ant Edwards also stirred with 30 points. The pace of these meetings has been brisk since the regular season, and it hasn't been changing in the playoffs. Play Thunder-Wolves Over

The Knicks are in trouble, partly because they are down almost 10 assists pg in this series from the regular season. Jalen Brunson in possession of the ball longer on each possessions is helping Tom Thibodeau slow down the blistering Indiana the pace somewhat, but it’s at the expense of the offense becoming too predictable with one isolation and pick-and-roll after another. Moreover, Thibodeau’s decision to take Karl-Anthony Towns out of the game (due mostly to defense) in the 4th Q on Friday might have justified, considering KAT’s -20 +/- in just 27 minutes, but overall, it hurt the Knicks, taking take their 1-B scoring option off of the floor when buckets were sorely needed to keep pace with a rampant Indiana. Play Pacers

Rick Carlisle is making sure to use all of his available options, best illustrated by the 39 points scored by F Pascal Siakam on Friday (many of those, but not all, when Karl-Anthony Towns was on the floor at the stop end) after Aaron Nesmith joined Tyrese Haliburton as the big-play heroes of Game One. Carlisle’s 11-deep bench affords him some luxuries, though Tom Thibodeau nonetheless has a puncher's chance if Jalen Brunson continues to abuse the Pacers. Totals-wise, though Game 2 landed a bucket short of another over result, Pacers-Knicks games, including the regular season, have all hit 221 or higher; both teams also have offensive ratings of 120 or better in the conference finals. Over still seems a viable idea. Play Knicks-Pacers Over

It's a bit tricky to make a case for the T-wolves, after the first two games of this series were almost carbon copies of one another in OKC. In Minnesota's favor, perhaps, is that the Thunder haven't been nearly as dominant on the road in the playoffs as at home. Indeed, OKC has yet to cover a spread in five road playoff games, even having struggles at overmatched Memphis, and losing 2 of 3 in Denver. Minnesota needs someone other than Ant Edwards to step forward, and Julius Randle, quiet since early in Game One, must start to score. The T-wolves weren't outclassed during the regular season vs. OKC, splitting four, so we play the contrarian role one more time in this series. Play Thunder

With a high-rated defense, the Thunder would figure to be lower-scoring team, no? Not necessarily, as OKC is so adept at converting turnovers into quick points. The Thunder also doesn't play at a slow pace, has several go-to scoring threats, and owns depth. OKC doesn't necessarily slow down when the backups are on the floor. Minnesota needs to do a better job coping with the disruptions in Game 3, but this wasn't a low-scoring matchup during the regular season, and Game 2 was able to land on the over side. All but one (Game One of this series, when Minnesota went ice cold in the second half) of the six meetings to date this season has reached 218 points or more. Play Thunder-Wolves Over

Downstream in these East finals, that fatigue factor for New York vs. Indiana’s 11-deep bench could indeed be a determining factor for this series in which the Pacers (who have also won five straight road playoff games this spring) have already stolen home-court edge. NBA history, however, suggests Friday could be a spot for the Knicks to dig in their heels, even if it requires invoking the venerable NBA playoff zig-zag theory, which over the years has been a recurring factor, often more pronounced in Game Two; this season, teams that lost outright in Game One are 8-5 vs. the number, while home teams that lost outright, historically a winner at a slightly higher percentage, bounced back to cover four of six. Play Knicks