Bob's Past Picks
Despite being 9-7 SU on the road, Arizona is still hitting .234 as a team this season. However, they have a favorable matchup against Aaron Nola who owns a 7.15 home ERA and has allowed three runs, or more, in three of his five starts thus far. He’s been shaky and along with their bullpen owning a 4.70 ERA. Brandon Pfaadt has pitched well on the road, but Philadelphia performs well at home, hitting .272 with a .783 OPS, and Pfaadt is backed by a vulnerable bullpen, 4.50 ERA.
New York is 5-1 SU in Clay Holmes’ first six starts as a Met. On the road, New York has not performed as well as they do at home, 8-8 SU away as compared to 13-3 SU at home. Sonny Gray is 2-0 at home but has allowed three runs, or more, in two of his three starts. The Mets are hitting .282 over their last seven days as compared to St. Louis’ .212. Holmes is also backed by the third best bullpen in the NL with, currently, a 3.26 ERA.
Detroit is currently three games below .500 on the road. However, they have a favorable matchup against Yusei Kikuchi, owning a 4.31 ERA, as they also are hitting .250 against lefties thus far, top 10 in the majors. The Angels are currently hitting .217 as a team at home and face Larry Mize, who has allowed one run, or less, in four of his first five starts on the season.
The Athletics have been hitting well on the road to start the season, .253 average, top 10 in the league. Jacob deGrom just faced the Athletics in his last start, holding them to two runs in 5.1 innings. Jacob Lopez is a relief pitcher but starts this one and hasn’t allowed a run yet this season and faces a Texas lineup hitting .226 over their last seven days. Out of 14 home games this season, only one has gone over the total at Globe Life Field.
Ronel Blanco is off his best start of the season, one earned run in 6.2 innings against the Blue Jays. He’s yet to allow more than three runs at home thus far and faces a Detroit lineup hitting .229 on the road with a .655 OPS. This is only the third road start for Jack Flaherty, but he faces an Astros lineup only hitting .232 against righties on the season. The game has gone under the total in four of the last five between these two.
Baltimore has not favored well against lefties thus far in the season. They’re hitting .168 against them with a .484 OPS as well. The Nationals also are facing a lefty, and they haven’t been hitting well either, .229 average as a team. Mackenzie Gore has pitched well at home, 1.50 ERA in 12 innings while Cade Povich has the same ERA on the road, but in a small sample size of six innings. The game has gone under the total in six of the eight meetings between these two.
Over the last seven days, Toronto has been hitting .204 as a team with four of their last six games failing to reach nine runs. The Astros have been hitting better of late, but still only hitting .232 against righties on the year. Houston’s Ryan Gusto owns a 4.15 home ERA but is backed by the 4th best bullpen, currently, with a 2.80 ERA. Nine of the last 12 meetings between these two have also gone under the total.
Detroit is only hitting .221 as a team against left handers thus far. Cole Ragans owns a 1.42 road ERA in 12.2 innings and backed by a middle of the pack bullpen in the AL. The Royals offense has been struggling to start the season, hitting .207 as a team and Detroit’s Jackson Jobe has found success in his last two starts, 1.63 ERA in 11 innings.
New York’s Clarke Schmidt makes his season debut against a Royals lineup that has not been off to a good start offensively. Kansas City is hitting .184 on the road thus far and have only scored more than four runs twice in their six road games of the season. The Yankees bats have cooled off, hitting .234 over their last seven days and go up against Kris Bubic who’s only allowed two earned runs in 12 innings on the road. These are also two of the better bullpens in the AL to this point.
New York’s Clay Holmes own a 2.89 road ERA thus far and takes on a Twins team that is only hitting .236 at home. Six of the last seven games for Minnesota has seen less than eight runs and Joe Ryan has a good track record this Mets lineup. Despite how powerful this New York could be, they’re off to a slower start offensively this season, hitting .215 as a team so far. Both starters are backed by two of the best bullpens in the league as well.
San Diego is 5-5 in their last 10 in terms of the over/under. However, the Athletics have seen nine runs, or more, in seven straight and are still winless at home. Even though they have yet to win a game at home, there have been nine runs, or more, in each of those four games. San Diego is only hitting .257 against left handers but Jeffrey Springs comes off four earned runs to the Cubs in his last outing and San Diego has just as much power throughout their lineup. The Athletics bullpen also currently own the AL’s worst ERA, 6.08.
The National Title game is 13-6 to the under in the last 19. Florida is a team that will push the pace the entire game, but the Cougars will want to control this game in the half court. Houston is 360th in adjusted tempo and 22-15-2 to the under on the year and will give a lot of attention to Walter Clayton Jr. and they won’t be able to shut down him down totally but will attempt to do their best at limiting him. Since the Cougars play much slower, they’ll keep his game in the half court and limit the possessions from Florida from getting out in transition.
This will be a fun contrast of styles match for the National Title. Florida is going to push the pace for the entire game while the Cougars will want to control the tempo as they’re 360th in the nation in adjusted tempo. Both teams rely heavily on the three, but Houston allows opponents to shoot just 30.1% from behind the arc while also allowing the lowest field goal percentage in the country, 38.2%. The Gators have the best scorer in the country in Walter Clayton Jr., but this experienced Houston defense has been tough, disruptive and will look to keep this a half-court game.
This early in the season and we got the lowest total yet. Tampa Bay is hitting .167 against lefties thus far and even though Justin Steele has had difficulty with his control to the year, this is a favorable matchup for him. The Cubs have a powerful lineup but are still only hitting .196 at home. Nathan Eovaldi attacks the strike zone and has yet to walk a batter this season. The temperature at Wrigley will be in the 30s with 20 MPH winds blowing in.
The first two games of this series went under the total. The weather is calling for the winds to be blowing in around first pitch with cooler temperatures than the first two games. New York is still struggling to hit as a team, despite winning three straight, .191 average overall. The Blue Jays don’t have the deepest lineup and are only hitting .209 on the road in their last two. In their nine times this two teams have played, the under is 6-2-1.