Martin's Past Picks
Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last six games against Bayern Munich. The teams have already met twice this season. Leverkusen beat Bayern Munich 1-0 on the road in December, and they then held Vincent Kompany’s men to a 0-0 draw at BayArena on February 15. These Leverkusen players have a habit of thwarting Bayern Munich’s expensively assembled attack. They have conceded just one goal in their last four matches against Bayern, which bodes well for their chances of getting a result in Munich this week.
Dortmund are back in business after beating Union Berlin 6-0 and St. Pauli 2-0 in their last two games. Der BVB have struggled in the Bundesliga this season, but they boast an impressive record in the Champions League. They went all the way to the final last year, and they made short work of Sporting Lisbon in the last round. Dortmund should now pick up a home win against Lille. The French team lost 4-1 away to PSG at the weekend, which may knock their confidence, and Dortmund should capitalize.
PSV are in trouble after losing 2-1 to Juventus in Turin last week. They will be eliminated from the Champions League if they fail to beat the Bianconeri in the second leg, so they should throw caution to the wind on Wednesday. PSV are unbeaten at home since November 2022, and they have scored in every home game for the past two years. That should give the players confidence. However, Juventus have already beaten PSV twice this season – 3-1 in the group stage, and 2-1 last week – and they should also find the back of the net.
Atalanta should gain sweet revenge when they face Club Brugge in Bergamo on Tuesday. La Dea suffered a 2-1 defeat to the Belgian champions last week. However, they were unlucky, as Brugge were awarded a highly controversial late penalty. Atalanta’s players should channel that sense of injustice into a strong performance in the second leg, and they look capable of beating Brugge. For more value, you can bet on Atalanta to advance to the next round at -120, or perhaps Atalanta -1.25 on the Asian handicap.
Atalanta should be full of confidence after securing a morale-boosting 5-0 victory over Verona at the weekend. Gian Piero Gasperini’s men will carry a great deal of momentum into their clash with Club Brugge, and they look capable of securing a precious away win. These players know how to get the job done in big European games, having won the Europa League last year, and that experience could be invaluable. Brugge are running out of steam with just one win in their last six games, and Atalanta could capitalize.
Juventus eased to a 3-1 victory over PSV earlier this season. Goals from Kenan Yildiz, Weston McKennie and Nicolás González put the Bianconeri in control, before Ismael Saibari grabbed a consolation goal in the last minute. That victory should give Juventus a psychological edge when the teams renew hostilities in Turin today. The Bianconeri have drawn too many games this season, but their form has improved since signing striker Randal Kolo Muani from PSG. The French forward has already scored five goals for his new club, and he could lead them to a crucial win on Tuesday.
Atletico Madrid will aim to pile more misery on RB Salzburg when the teams meet in Austria this week. Salzburg have lost six out of seven Champions League games so far this season and have been eliminated from making the knockout stage. They suffered a humiliating 5-1 defeat to Real Madrid last week, meaning they have now conceded 23 goals in seven games. The players are rusty, as the Austrian Bundesliga is on pause for a two-month winter break, and they could be outclassed by a slick Atletico Madrid team.
Borussia Dortmund fired manager Nuri Sahin after a disappointing 2-1 defeat to Bologna in their last Champions League game. However, Der BVB are still on course to qualify for the knockout stage, and they could clinch a coveted top-eight finish if they secure a home win against Shakhtar Donetsk on Wednesday. Shakhtar have lost four out of seven Champions League games this season, and their chances of qualifying for the next round are miniscule. They lost 5-1 to Bayern Munich earlier in the campaign, and they could suffer another comprehensive defeat to a German heavyweight this week.
Man City looked back to their brilliant best when they thrashed Ipswich 6-0 on Sunday. Pep Guardiola’s men have picked up four wins and a draw in their last five games, and they appear to have turned a corner following a dismal run of results in November and December. They have only won two of their six Champions League games this season, and their chances of reaching the knockout stage are in jeopardy. City desperately need to beat PSG on Wednesday, and they could get the better of Luis Enrique’s inexperienced team.
Liverpool should make short work of Lille when the teams clash at Anfield. The Reds are top of the Champions League table, with six wins from six games so far. They have scored 13 goals and conceded just once in that time. Victory in this game would ensure automatic qualification for the Round of 16, so the players should be highly motivated. Lille have impressed in the Champions League this season, with four wins from six games, but they could be outclassed at Anfield.
PSV Eindhoven will aim to capitalize on Red Star Belgrade’s defensive frailties when the teams meet in Serbia this week. Red Star have conceded 19 goals in six Champions League matches so far, which equates to 3.17 goals per game. They have lost five out of six matches, and their chances of reaching the knockout stage are slim. By contrast, PSV are currently on course to make the next stage, but they cannot afford to drop points in Belgrade. They will be highly motivated, and they look capable of securing a narrow win.
This should prove to be an entertaining game. Bologna’s forwards are in excellent form right now, but the defense has been struggling. Over 2.5 goals has paid off in each of their last four games – a 3-2 defeat to Verona, a 2-2 draw with Roma, another 2-2 draw with Inter Milan, and then a 3-1 victory over Monza on Saturday. Five of Dortmund’s last six games have seen over 2.5 goals, and their defense is leaking goals. They haven’t kept a clean sheet since November, but they also boast several talented forwards.
Borussia Dortmund are currently fourth in the Champions League table, with four wins and one defeat in five games. They won both of their home games in convincing fashion, so they should be highly competitive when they host Barcelona. Barça are level on points with Dortmund, but their away record is not overly impressive: one win and one loss in two road trips so far. They have won just two of their last six games in all competitions, and they may view a draw as a good result in this game, so backing Dortmund +0.5 looks appealing.
Slovan Bratislava look out of their depth in the Champions League. The Slovak champions have lost all five games so far, scoring just four goals and conceding 18. That leaves them with a -14 goal difference. They lost 5-1 to Celtic, 4-0 to Manchester City and 4-1 at home to Dinamo Zagreb, which does not augur well for their chances against a rampant Atlético Madrid team. Atlético have banged in 18 goals in their last four matches, including a 6-0 win against Sparta Prague in their last Champions League game, so they could run riot here.
This has been a disastrous Champions League campaign for RB Leipzig, who have lost all five games so far. They have scored four goals and conceded 10, so their games have seen an average of 2.8 goals. However, over the past two weeks, Leipzig beat Eintracht Frankfurt (3-0) and Holstein Kiel (2-0). Aston Villa have been solid on defense so far, however, they have not kept a single clean sheet in seven away games in the Premier League this season. Over 2.5 goals looks appealing.