Wasn't our day yesterday in the Champions League, but I'll pretty much take +1.5 goals on any home team at this late stage of the tournament. Feyenoord is unbeaten in six games in all competitions (W3 D3), since a 2-0 loss at PSV Eindhoven in the Dutch Cup quarterfinal on Feb. 5. Inter's Serie A record since advancing straight to the UCL Round of 16 is W2 D2 L2 with both defeats in away games.

Borussia Dortmund was the 2024 UCL runner-up but had disappointed this season overall until making a managerial change to Nico Kovač in late January. The side enters having won back-to-back Bundesliga games by a combined score of 8-0 and has the Champions League's leading scorer in Serhou Guirassy with 10 goals. Lille has just one all-time win in Germany and having a very mediocre domestic campaign in France.

Club Brugge has been basically the NHL's version of the Columbus Blue Jackets of this Champions League season for me in terms of making bank on them at home. Might be the first time someone compared the world-class city of Bruges with the decidedly not world-class Columbus. We go back to the side in the Round of 16 opener Tuesday afternoon. All we care about is a draw. Club Brugge beat visiting Aston Villa 1-0 on Matchday 4 of this competition, and our model has Brugge winning this one even bigger. A 3-0 Matchday 1 defeat by Borussia Dortmund is Club Brugge's only loss in 13 home European games (W9 D3).

All Juventus needs is a draw to advance after winning 2-1 in the first leg at home. Eindhoven has been without leading domestic scorer Ricardo Pepi due to injury since late January, and he won't return. The Italian side was a 3-1 winner at home over the Dutch champions on Matchday 1 as well. PSV hasn't won a Champions League knockout phase tie since a 2-1 aggregate victory against Arsenal in the 2006-07 round of 16. Eindhoven is winless in six straight vs. Serie A teams (D2 L4).

So I could take Atalanta moneyline at basically the same price, but Club Brugge will play for a draw if at all possible after winning the first leg 2-1 at home on a very controversial late penalty that it converted. It was the 45th time Club Brugge won the first home leg of a UEFA competition tie, and it advanced in 30 of the previous 44 as well as 14 of the past 16. I tend to think Atalanta does win by a goal Tuesday at home but that's fine for these purposes. Club Brugge has won seven of its last 13 away European games (D1 L5).

This is the clubs' first-ever meeting – the lone matchup in this Champions League round not to have been played before – and only Atalanta's third fixture against a team from Belgium. The 0-0 UCL Matchday 7 draw with Juventus is one of just two games in the past 35 in all competitions in which Club Brugge has failed to score. It has two or more goals in 11 of its last 15 fixtures in the Belgian Pro League. Atalanta has only three wins in its past 11 in all competitions (five draws, three losses), scoring 12 goals in the wins and seven in the other eight. While Brugge is healthy, Atalanta has a handful of injury/illness concerns. Draw is more than fine.

We don't have a Draw No Bet option, but that would be the safer play. Juve should play rather aggressively and for a win, though, ahead of the second-leg UCL knockout round matchup next week in the Netherlands. These clubs opened league phase against one another in September and Juventus won 3-1 at home in their first-ever meeting. First-half goals from Kenan Yıldız (21st minute) and American Weston McKennie (27th) put Juventus in control. PSV is winless in its past five vs. Italian sides (3L, 2D). Eindhoven recently lost top forward Ricardo Pepi to a season-ending injury. The American had 18 goals in 25 league and cup appearances this season for his club.

Consider the source -- me -- but I don't believe we get totals of 5.5 in Champions League matches often. Bayern Munich has qualified for at worst the knockout round playoffs and would need a ton of help to get into the top eight so I'm not sure the side goes all-out Wednesday. Slovan Bratislava has been eliminated from advancing. We can't get 5-0 or 4-1 here? Bayern has 17 total goals in seven UCL matches. Our model has it 3.5-0.5.

Both teams may play for a draw as that gets both into the knockout playoffs (barring an incredibly unlikely 7-goal margin of victory elsewhere) and neither can get to the top eight, but I can't bring myself to bet/root for a tie as that's just not in my nature. Probably why I don't care a ton about soccer, although I do find Wednesday's Matchday Mayhem really interesting and am paying attention. In theory, a loss might cost Stuttgart more, so we'll take the half-hook/quarter. A draw is +155 if you are wondering. This is the teams' first meeting and Stuttgart's first game against a French club since 2007, while Paris has already lost in Germany this season.

If reigning Belgian champion Club Brugge gets a lead on Wednesday, it will go into a complete defensive shell as it only needs a draw to advance to the UCL playoffs for the first time but is out with a loss. Man City has to win to advance but goal differential would be irrelevant in that regard, so I'd imagine the Citizens would play it very defensively as well if they get up 1-0 to avoid that potential tying goal. But then again, last time I played soccer competitively was on the green team in like 4th grade so ...

Certainly Bayern Munich should be a road favorite but getting that half-goal I believe will be the difference as our model has Feyenoord losing 2-1 (as do a few others). It faces more urgency to win/draw than Bayern, which is in better shape to advance. Feyenoord has won 12 of its 19 all-time matches against German teams in Rotterdam and we only need a one-goal loss. Feyenoord has scored three goals or more in 10 of its past 18 matches overall, and if that happens again, we surely cover. Bayern has a single win in its past six at a Dutch side.

Juventus has one victory in four 2025 matches overall, and six of its past seven road games in all competitions have been draws -- which is just fine by me here. Both of Juve's all-time defeats by Belgian sides have come away from home. Club Brugge, the reigning Belgian champ, is unbeaten in 18 straight matches. It has failed to score in just one of the past 30 games across all competitions. Our model has Club Brugge winning.

PSG is not what it was after losing Kylian Mbappe and sits only 25th in the current UCL table with four points and a minus-3 goal differential through five matches. RB Salzburg enters on a three-match unbeaten streak overall. It has just one UCL win but it was at home against a solid Feyenoord Rotterdam, so I think we are looking at worst at a push here. Our model has PSG by just .4 goals. It will be without Ousmane Dembele due to suspension. He has five Ligue 1 goals but hasn't scored in the UCL this season.

In the Scottish Premiership, Celtic is atop the table and also leads by a mile with 35 goals scored. In all competitions, Celtic has scored at least two goals in six straight. In the side's four UCL matches, the combined goal total has gone way Over in three. Nicolas-Gerrit Kuhn has been the star for the Bhoys, amassing 11 goals and 11 assists in 18 matches across all competitions. Club Brugge is second in the Belgian Pro League table and also with 30 goals and just scored seven on Saturday. Two of the team's four UCL matches have gone Over. Both sides should be playing for a W and not simply a draw.

Sporting CP is 11-0 in Portuguese Liga play this season with a whopping plus-34 goals differential and unbeaten in 32 straight matches overall. These sides met in the UEFA Europa League Round of 16 in 2023, from which the Portuguese side advanced on penalties. We'll happily take a draw here and three of four all-time meetings have ended that way. But the Lions have won nine of their 15 home games against English visitors. Viktor Gyökeres has 33 goals in 25 games for club and country this season – including 17 in his last nine. Arsenal has failed to win seven of its past eight away Champions League matches.