PSG is not what it was after losing Kylian Mbappe and sits only 25th in the current UCL table with four points and a minus-3 goal differential through five matches. RB Salzburg enters on a three-match unbeaten streak overall. It has just one UCL win but it was at home against a solid Feyenoord Rotterdam, so I think we are looking at worst at a push here. Our model has PSG by just .4 goals. It will be without Ousmane Dembele due to suspension. He has five Ligue 1 goals but hasn't scored in the UCL this season.

In the Scottish Premiership, Celtic is atop the table and also leads by a mile with 35 goals scored. In all competitions, Celtic has scored at least two goals in six straight. In the side's four UCL matches, the combined goal total has gone way Over in three. Nicolas-Gerrit Kuhn has been the star for the Bhoys, amassing 11 goals and 11 assists in 18 matches across all competitions. Club Brugge is second in the Belgian Pro League table and also with 30 goals and just scored seven on Saturday. Two of the team's four UCL matches have gone Over. Both sides should be playing for a W and not simply a draw.

Sporting CP is 11-0 in Portuguese Liga play this season with a whopping plus-34 goals differential and unbeaten in 32 straight matches overall. These sides met in the UEFA Europa League Round of 16 in 2023, from which the Portuguese side advanced on penalties. We'll happily take a draw here and three of four all-time meetings have ended that way. But the Lions have won nine of their 15 home games against English visitors. Viktor Gyökeres has 33 goals in 25 games for club and country this season – including 17 in his last nine. Arsenal has failed to win seven of its past eight away Champions League matches.

Feyenoord has lost just twice in its 15 contests this term (W8 D5). One of those was a 4-0 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen in the UCL opener, but the Dutch club has won both games in the competition since, scoring three in each. The Austrian side, meanwhile, is without a point in three UCL matches thus far and yet to score while conceding nine. Salzburg has just two wins in its past seven overall and has failed to score in five. Goalkeeper Alexander Schlager is suspended for this one.

Bet365 is our only book to have 3 instead of 2.5, and we'll take it with the expectation that a push is our worst result -- the model has Man City winning 1.9-1.1. Citizens star Erling Haaland appeared to suffer an injury at practice Monday. He will play but Man City is missing a lot of other guys. Its past three overall games have ended with three total goals scored or fewer. City hasn't allowed a goal in three UCL matches this season. Sporting CP has given up one.

Bayer Leverkusen is the defending Bundesliga champion when it finished with a historic unbeaten league season but the side is 4-4-1 so far this year after losing some key pieces. Liverpool tops the Premier League in the early going and has just one loss in all competitions. The Reds are undefeated in their last 13 UEFA competition matches against German teams (W10 D3). They have won 11 of their last 16 Champions League matches at Anfield (D2 L3). Domestically, the Liverpool defense is allowing just 0.6 goals per match in Premier League play, the best mark of any club.

Benfica enters on a six-game winning streak in all competitions and sits third in the Portuguese Liga. The side's last Champions League match was a stunningly impressive 4-0 win over Atletico Madrid. Kerem Aktürkoglu has eight goals in his last eight games for club and country. Midfielder Renato Sanches will return from injury Wednesday after missing the past six overall matches. Feyenoord is 4-4 in the Dutch Eredivisie and 1-1 in the Champions League this season, allowing six total goals in UCL play. It has a handful of guys dealing with injuries. The teams haven't played in more than 50 years.

Aston Villa's first-ever Champions League home match was a rousing success against Bayern Munich, and the Villains are 2-0 in the competition this season while sitting fourth in the Premier League table with just one league loss. Aston Villa has only failed to score in one of their last 33 UEFA competition home games and has won seven of its past eight home European matches. It could become only the third side to win its opening three games in the UEFA Champions League without conceding after Málaga in 2012-13 and Leicester City in 2016-17. Bologna has one victory this year in Serie A and yet to score in two UCL matches so far.

Munich star Harry Kane will be available after tweaking an ankle last weekend. Kane had four goals in Munich's 9-2 rout of Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League opener. Vincent Kompany's side has outscored opponents 30-5 in all competitions this year. My only concern is a draw as Aston Villa hosts a Champions League match for the first time in 41 years.

This is essentially like betting the White Sox +2.5 at home vs. the Yankees. Which worked twice, I believe. Man City will dominate new Champions League team Slovan Bratislava but obviously City would have to score at least four times to cover on the road in what I imagine is a pretty big event in Slovakia. The Citizens haven't beaten a team by three goals yet this year in any competition and lost star Rodri recently to a season-ending injury. Midfielder Kevin De Bruyne didn't making the trip to Bratislava, which is I believe where the events of the excellent movie "Hostel" took place.

Stellar matchup between defending Italian and English champions -- they met in the 2023 UCL final with Man City winning by a goal. Inter Milan has conceded just three goals in its opening four Serie A games this season, while Man City has allowed the same number in its Premier League fixtures. That both clubs score is a -145 favorite and if that's the case, then obviously Man City would have to get three goals at least for us to lose this bet. Our model has the hosts winning 1.6-1.2.

The reigning Portuguese champions Sporting Lisbon have started the new league season at 5-0, winning each by multiple goals. Victor Gyokeres has scored at least one goal in each game and has a whopping eight already. Sporting Lisbon is unbeaten in 24 straight home matches. Lille has two wins and two draws in French Ligue 1 action thus far. It has just one win all-time at a Portugal club and that was way back in 2004. Lille has failed to win five of its past six away matches across all competitions.

SL expert Martin Green, who knows more about soccer than I ever will, likes Under 2.5 goals. This is clearly an alt total in our feed but I'll happily take it. Again, with my limited knowledge feels like Dortmund has to play conservative to have a shot. There have not been more than three goals scored in a UCL final since 2018.

All of our soccer experts like Real Madrid at home, so who am I to argue? This season at Bernabéu, Los Blancos are unbeaten in La Liga action (15 wins, two draws). They have scored 43 goals and conceded just nine times. Madrid also has not lost a Champions League home game since the 2022 quarters vs. Chelsea. The winner would advance as the teams drew last week, and Real Madrid is the overall favorite to win the Champions League. Who really wants an all-German final? (well, besides Germans)

Don't watch much soccer outside of the World Cup but did watch the first leg of this match and wow was that fun. Hopefully more of the same. Man City led twice in Madrid but had to settle for a 3-3 draw. Feels like last season in the Champions League when Pep Guardiola's side left Madrid with a draw (1-1) then rolled into the final with a 4-0 home win. Real Madrid are without the suspended Aurelien Tchouameni. He has played the full way in Madrid's past three UCL matches and also had a goal Saturday in La Liga action. City has won its last six home games against Spanish clubs.