Jon's Past Picks
This is one of those rare UCL fixtures where we have very recent history to look at how they match up. These two teams met during the group stage in what became the second highest scoring match in the competitions this season. The 4-5 bout in the group stage saw Barcelona claim victory but shined a light on glaring weaknesses on both teams defenses. While I don't know if we'll see nine goals again, I'm expecting goals from both sides, and the over to clear, with strikers like Robert Lewandowski and Vangelis Pavlidis being too in form to stop right now.
The most efficient team in Ligue 1 hosting the most efficient team in all of Europe should provide us quite the interesting first leg. PSG have been on an absolute rampage, picking up 40 goals scored over their last 10 matches, including a 7-0 win over Stade Brest in their last UCL bout. Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembele have led the charge and will look to take down the giants of England. Mo Salah will be looking to shatter PSG's dreams, and with the form he's in can definitely make that happen. Expect goals from both sides, and an electric fixture in Paris.
The most important thing you can do when betting on Dortmund is to bet on them specifically when they are playing in Champions League, and avoiding them in domestic play. This is a team that can’t put together simple set pieces when playing in the Bundesliga, but then put together masterclass after masterclass in European competitions. This Dortmund squad scored two against Barcelona, three against Club Brugge, two against Real Madrid and seven against Celtic in UCL play. I love the over because even if Lille doesn’t contribute, which I think they will, Dortmund is capable of covering this over by themselves. Look to Servo Guirassy to find the back of the net for Dortmund, and possibly, more than once.
This is such a tricky matchup to figure out after a crazy first leg and frankly I'm expecting a similar scoreline. These two squads boast some of the best attacking sides in all of Europe. Manchester City have struggled with consistency all season long, but one thing that has been consistent is their goal scoring. They have the third best attack in EPL, averaging two goals scored per match. With Erling Haaland leading the charge, assisted by the likes of Phil Foden and new pickup Josko Gvardiol. This is a team that can score. Real Madrid matches them well on offense with an in-form Kylian Mbappe tailed by Vini. Jr. and Rodyrgo. I expect goals in this one.
There are 36 teams participating in the Champions League this season, and out of all these teams, there is one that has been frustratingly good at defense: Inter Milan. Inter have played seven matches, and are the only team that has seen less than 10 combined goals in those matches. With eight goals scored and only a single goal conceded, this is a team that thrives in physically frustrating and breaking down their opponents. Monaco struggles on the road, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this match not only go under 2.5 goals, but 1.5 goals as well, with neither team wanting to drop points.
RB Salzburg has been one of, if not the most embarrassing team in Champions League play this season. This is an Austrian staple in European competitions, and they've turned into the punching bag of all teams. They have the second most goals conceded, being outscored four goals to 23. They have nothing to play for, meanwhile Atletico Madrid will be going for all three points on the road. This over 2.5 goals could and should be covered by Atletico Madrid themselves, as they are one of the more dominant offensive teams in this competition.
There are currently only two match days left for the group stage of Champions League. There are only three points separating third on the table Arsenal from 19th on the table Club Brugge. This means any team between those spots will be fighting like mad to finish in the top eight. Aston Villa and Monaco fall in this category. Monaco have been struggling defensively both in league play and UCL. A well-managed and fierce attacking Aston Villa side will look to strike on the road. Aston Villa are coming off a 2-2 draw against Arsenal and are unbeaten in their last five. They'll look to take three points off a Monaco side that has been limping through league play in the last month.
I'm our resident Bundesliga supporter and literally have the Bayern Munich crest tattooed on my leg. With that being said, I do not feel confident in my squad right now. VIncent Kompany's team looked incredible… for about two months. They're consistently coming into matches as massive favorites and barely putting together sloppy and broken victories. The Bavarian giants will be looking for a big bounce-back victory, and as almost -700 favorites you would think that would happen. I just don’t trust them. Shakhtar are tough at home and I believe they'll find the scoresheet. While I do think Bayern Munich will win, a 2.5-goal spread is brutal for a team that will be missing its best scorer, Harry Kane.
I think this Over could be covered by PSV by themselves. Look to play things like PSV Over 1.5 TT as well, because I believe with all my heart that Stade Brest’s incredible start to the UCL is going to come to an abrupt halt. PSV have been on a rampage, both domestically and in their recent UCL fixtures. They beat Girona 4-0 and Shakhtar 3-2 in UCL, while beating Utrecht 5-2, Groningen 5-0, and Twente 6-1, all in their last five matches. This team doesn’t know how to slow down, and even if Stade Brest doesn’t contribute to the goal count, I like this Over just as much.
Stade Brest were a team that started off this competition in amazing form, but were exposed by Barcelona in the last matchday. Stade Brest is a team that historically struggles against Dutch sides, which will work perfectly for a PSV side that hasn’t lost against French sides in years. PSV has started off slow, but have way too much attack for a Brest side that prefers a more defensive approach. PSV, with American talent Ricardo Pepi, did well to pull a 1-1 draw against PSG (the best French side) already this season, and I’m expecting them to take all three points against Brest in France.
Sporting are in crisis mode right now. Their manager took the call and moved to Manchester to coach the Red Devils, and since he left Sporting have lost three matches in a row. While the team still possess all the same talent that they dominated with, they’re just going through some growing pains, and a defensively weak Brugge side will be the perfect opponent for Viktor Gyokeres and Sporting to find their groove once again. These are two teams with tremendous goal-scoring talent, two teams that need three points, and two teams going for goals. I love Over 2.5 here and don’t hate Over 3.5 as well.
If the Over is too juicy for you, I’d consider taking the Sporting money line. This is a nice plus odds number for everyone who doesn’t mind a bit more risk. I’m aware that Sporting are in a rut right now since manager Ruben Amorim left to manage Manchester United, but this team just has so much talent. Most noticeably the striker and leader Viktor Gyokeres (ATGS +100), but also they have Francisco Trincao and Daniel Braganca to back him up. I’m expecting a bounce-back game here for the visitors.
This is going to be a massively controversial play, but I’m sticking to my guns here! Atalanta should not be underdogs at home against anyone right now. Atalanta are currently top of the Serie A table, while also being one of the only three teams who are yet to lose a match in Champions League this season. They have Charles De Ketelaere, Ademola Lookman, Mateo Retegui, and more. This is a team that is unstoppable, and even against the “Kings of Champions League,” Real Madrid, I expect the hosts to persevere and get all three points. Real Madrid are struggling massively right now, and while I think they’ll turn things around eventually, they'll need to wait another week to do that.
Frankly I think this match ends in a draw. Inter are one of the three clubs, along with Liverpool and Atalanta, who have not lost a match yet. They are also the only club that hasn’t conceded in UCL. That’s right, they've scored seven goals in their five matches and haven’t conceded a single time. While Leverkusen are a good side, especially when playing at home, this is one of those classic matchups where neither side would be upset walking away with a point. Both clubs are in the top eight and will do anything to prevent dropping points. Leverkusen have not lost in their last six matches across all competitions, while Inter haven’t lost in their last 13. Expect a cagey, low-scoring match.
I know this is a juicy line and definitely is not for everyone, but I would consider using this as a parlay piece if you don’t want to take it as a straight bet. Liverpool ML, even at -225, is something I don’t mind playing considering how much of an absolute rampage Arne Slot and the Reds are on. This is the club that is not only atop the table in UCL play, but also is leading the English Premier League. They boast one of the best offenses, one of the best defenses, and are hands down the best road team in Europe right now. I expect Liverpool not only to win, but by multiple goals in this fixture.