Can Tyrese Haliburton bounce back?

Buddy Hield has struggled from a consistency standpoint throughout his career, particularly in high leverage/clutch situations. This game has a minuscule total, is going to be paced down, and Minnesota possesses an elite defense. It wouldn’t shock me in Gary Payton Jr absorbed some of his minutes if Hield is struggling shooting.

If you’ve been following me or my picks you’d know how highly I think of Aaron Gordon and his ability to make an impact on both ends of the court. Gordon has been incredible in the playoffs and has really elevated his play. With that said, this is a high scoring line for him, in what is certainly a very difficult matchup against the best defensive team in the NBA. Anytime the Thunder play there is blowout potential as well as we witnessed in Game 2 of this series.

Andrew Nembhard has been sensational throughout the playoffs and is a big reason why the Pacers find themselves up 2-0 on the Cleveland Cavaliers. Whether it’s been his shooting, playmaking, defense, he’s been contributing in a myriad of ways. With that being said, this is a very high line for his AR considering he’s not a high output rebounder and is a secondary ball handler. Nembhard has averaged under 9 combined RA in the regular season and postseason. My projections have a nice edge here.

Alex Caruso was huge off the bench in Game 1 and as a result saw additional minutes. With that being said, we’re getting an inflated line and my projections have a significant edge on the under on his AR line, PRA, and Points in that order. This is also available on Kambi/BetRivers at (-130).

Christian Braun is playing huge minutes and is coming off a 40 minute performance where he combined for 27 PRA. Braun is a consistently playing 40 minutes a night in the playoffs and I don’t expect that to change considering Michael Porter Jr. has become unplayable. We’re getting a nice discount here as Braun averaged over 23 PRA during the regular season with that number increasing to 26 PRA post All-Star break. Braun should continue to benefit from playing alongside the GOAT offensive player.

Josh Hart is playing massive minutes for the Knicks and started to appear worn down versus the Pistons. Hart led the NBA in MPG during the regular season and I anticipate him playing huge minutes in this series against Boston. Game 1 isn’t until Monday so Hart will get 3 full days of rest which should really help him considering he was fatigued down the stretch. We’re getting a discount on this combo line.

This is a huge number for backup Center Steven Adams who is playing under 20 mins a game in this series, while averaging 11.6 PRA. The bulk of Adams production came in game 1, where he collected double digit rebounds while chipping in six points. In a must win game for Houston, starting Center Alperen Sengun is going to get all the minutes he can handle. I’d play this down to 11.5 for a full unit. This is going to be a paced down low scoring environment.

Aaron Gordon has eclipsed this line in every playoff game this season and has seen his usage spike, in addition to his playing time. Gordon is playing upwards of 40 minutes and stuffs the stat sheet. I would make this line 21.5 and would play this for a full unit at 18.5.

LeBron looked gassed to me at the conclusion of Game 4. LeBron did get an extra day off, however this game has a low total of just 209 points and this is a huge line for him. I also like the way Minnesota can defend him and bother him with their length I expect some adjustments to be made and as long as LeBron doesn’t get to the line 10+ times I think he’ll stay below this combo line. I would scale to a half unit at 42.5.

We’re getting a hefty discount on this combination line for Jaylen Brown who appears to be at full strength and playing without limitations after logging 41 minutes in the Celtics Game 4 victory. Brown dealt with a nagging knee injury which depressed this line but he certainly appears to be operating at full strength. I also like that this game is in Boston where Brown averaged over 35 PRA compared to just 29.8 PRA on the road.

The Pacers look like they might be playing spoiler once again in the postseason and sport a very deep rotation. As a result they’re getting significant contributions from 8 to 9 players on a nightly basis. Andrew Nembhard has been an unsung hero and strong two way player, however this is a large combination line for him, especially considering his usage and role in Indiana’s offense when they’re operating at full strength. Nembhard is shooting 53% through the playoffs and we’re getting an inflated line.

I rarely play rebounding props due to them being highly volatile but this is one I like quite a bit. First and foremost Alperen Sengun is one of the Association's best rebounders. Sengun averaged over 10 RPG in the regular season despite playing less than 32 MPG in the regular season. Sengun is playing over 35 MPG in the playoffs and I expect that number to rise in what is a must win Game 4 for Houston. I’d play this at 11.5 for a half unit.

Derrick White continues to show why he is one of Bostons most valuable players and truly one of the leagues most underrated two way players. With that being said, this is a huge line for the combo guard in a game with an anemic total of just 196 points. The Magic are a good defense and play at at the leagues slowest pace. I would play this for a full unit at 17.5.

Despite being an NBA Champion and very well respected amongst his peers, I would argue that Derrick White remains one of the most underrated players in the Association. White has the ability to contribute in a variety of ways, is versatile on both ends of the court, and has a very high basketball IQ. That being said, while he may attempt a few more shots tonight, his usage remains fairly consistent with and without Jayson Tatum (Doubtful) in the lineup. This combo line is typically 8.5 to 9.5 and in addition to the Magic playing at the slowest pace in the Association, Orlando surrenders the fewest Reb+Ast on a per game basis.