Alex's Picks (3 Live)
Alex's Past Picks
This looks like a good spot for Desmond Bane who has been shooting the ball well recently and is likely to get a bump in usage and possibly minutes tonight as the Grizzlies are set to battle the Atlanta Hawks. Ja Morant is Doubtful, while Marcus Smart is Questionable, and Bane could be looking at 30-32 minutes as the teams primary scorer tonight versus a Hawks team that plays at the second fastest pace. We should be in for a track meet as Memphis leads the league in possessions per game.
Quentin Johnston has been a reliable target for Justin Herbert this year after looking like a bust during a rough rookie season. That said, Johnston has had just a single game with over 51 receiving yards. He will now face what is the best defense in the NFL according to EPA, which also happens to feature the number one pass defense and PFF’s third best coverage unit. Making matter even more difficult: Johnston is likely going to see a lot of Patrick Surtain Jr., who is arguably the NFLs best cornerback. Surtain typically doesn’t travel to the slot where Chargers leading WR Ladd McConkey primarily lines up.
Khalil Shakir remains Josh Allen's most trusted and favorite target despite the Bills acquiring Amari Cooper. Shakir should flirt with a minimum of 75% route participation and he runs almost all of his routes exclusively from the slot. Not only does Shakir earn targets at an impressive rate, but he's been incredibly efficient with them this season and throughout his career. This looks like a great spot to back Shakir considering we're working with a massive 54.5 point total and the likelihood of increased passing volume provides Shakir tantalizing upside.
This looks like a great spot for Amon Ra Saint Brown and the Lions passing offense as a whole. First and foremost we're working with a gargantuan 54.5 point total in what should be an optimal game environment. We're also getting a sizable discount on this line as Saint Brown has had three consecutive quiet games (by his standards). Jared Goff has been incredibly efficient with a clean pocket this season and the Bills pass rush has been subpar. They've also been a mediocre coverage unit ranking 14th in EPA per dropback, in addition to 25th in PFF's coverage grade. With the potential for increased volume, this checks all then boxes for a smash spot for Saint Brown.
Anthony Richardson flashed some major upside in his rookie season and looked like he would eventually develop into a high end starter in the mold of Cam Newton. His sophomore campaign has been a much different story however and Richardson has really struggled and has even been benched at times for Joe Flacco. This looks like a spot where I expect Richardson to really struggle against a Denver defense that is 1st in EPA allowed per dropback and 2nd in Success Rate. I also expect the Colts to lean heavily on Jonathan Taylor and limit Richardson's drop backs as well.
Joe Mixon has been very good in his debut season with the Texans. Mixon has combined solid efficiency with elite usage and as a result is on pace to have the best season of his career. While Mixon has certainly been impressive, I do expect him to struggle against an underrated Dolphins run defense, that has performed particularly well recently. On the season Miami is 11th in EPA allowed per rush, 8th in Success Rate, and 5th in Defensive Run Grade, however they struggled to start the year and have really been good in the second half of the season. Miami's secondary has been a different story and has been very vulnerable, which I expect Houston OC Bobby Slowik to lean into.
Devin Booker has been carrying the scoring load for the Suns while scoring at least 25+ points in seven of his last eight appearances. Kevin Durant is coming off of an ankle injury and still working his way back to 100%. This is a great matchup against a Jazz squad that rank dead last in total defense. If the Jazz can hang with the Suns for the entire game, Booker should have his way and a big scoring game.
Desmond Bane is quietly working his way back to 100% after missing a big chunk of the season with an oblique injury. Bane has scored 14+ in four consecutive games, while seeing his playing time ramp up as well. I like this matchup for Bane against a Nets team that ranks 24th in total defense.
Rudy Gobert has seen his numbers fall off this season and while it may be concerning, I believe his "decline" is largely overstated. Gobert's offensive rebounding numbers are still in line with his career averages which indicates he's still an elite rebounder. I like this spot for him as we're getting a hefty discount on his combo line and while the Lakers may not be an optimal matchup, AD will have to score a ton to keep this game competitive which should lead to some easier looks for Gobert.
Joel Embiid is back in the lineup for the 76ers and is coming off of 5 days of rest as he is set to face the Pacers. Embiid has torched the Pacers throughout his career and has scored 30+ in seven of his last eight matchups. The Pacers rank top 10 in possessions per game while ranking in the bottom five in Defensive Efficiency, which is a recipe that leads to high scoring environments. I expect Embiid to play upwards of 35-37 minutes tonight and think he goes for 30+ points in the process.
Chase Brown looks more and more comfortable very week as the Bengals feature back. If we look at the Bengals rushing attack as a whole on the season, it's middling at best, however since Week 8 they're a respectable 15th in EPA per rush. That coincided with Brown taking over as the Bengals lead back and Zack Moss heading to IR. This is arguably the best matchup for RBs against a Dallas defense that is a MASSIVE run funnel, in addition to ranking dead last in EPA allowed per rush.
It's been tough sledding for Ceedee Lamb recently but. I like this spot for him as a potential bounce back for the star WR. Lamb hasnt touched the century mark in five consecutive games and a lot of that can be attributed to Cooper Rush playing QB for the Cowboys. Lamb is also dealing with a shoulder injury. We're getting a discount on his receiving line tonight in what is certainly a good matchup, with a high projected total, and game script should be in Lamb's favor. I like Lamb to get back on track tonight.