Tyrese Haliburton took is personally when he was voted the most overrated player in the NBA. Haliburton’s ability to control and dictate tempo is unmatched and he is certainly the catalyst of the Pacers success. With that being said, this is a large line for the All-World PG, not to mention he will happily defer or pass up shot attempts if he feels his teammates can get better looks. I’d play this down to (-180).

Jalen Williams is having a terrific postseason but it’s largely going unnoticed. The third year pro has an extremely well rounded game and is excellent on both ends of the court, however this is a hefty combo line in what is likely going to be a paced down environment.

The Thunder opted to go with a smaller lineup and inserted Alex Caruso for Isaiah Hartenstein in the second half of Game 4’s victory. While OKC was able to hang on for the win, they were outscored by Minnesota in the second half. This is a large number for Caruso and I’m not convinced he sees another significant bump in playing time.

Anthony Edwards was brilliant in the Timberwolves Game 3 trouncing of the Western Conference finals. While Ant is truly among the elite scorers in the league, he’s going to have his work cut out against a motivated and elite Thunder squad capable of deploying multiple quality defenders. Furthermore, there is no better team at limiting their opponents top scoring option. For AE to eclipse this line he’s either going to have to shoot lights out which is not an easy task or get there through volume.

This is a low number for KAT who has played mostly well in the postseason, although his numbers have dipped compared to the regular season. Twins has arguably the best matchup of any member of the Knicks and I expect him to be the focal point of the gameplan. I also like that Indiana plays uptempo and I like this game to be high scoring.

Prior to game 2 of this series, Julius Randle has been mostly exceptional in the playoffs, however I would argue he’s played above his head and is a significant regression candidate. Randle has the unenviable task of facing the Oklahoma City Thunder who not only possess the best defense in the league, but additionally defend the perimeter as well as any team. This is notable because over half of Randle’s field goal attempts come from beyond the arc. I prefer Randles PR number due to his inability to make a big impact on the glass in this series.

This is a huge RA line for Josh Hart, who averaged under 16 rebounds + assists in the regular season. We’re getting an inflated late partly because he pulled down 13 rebounds and handed out seven assists in Game 1, although he benefitted from OT as well. Hart looks a bit gassed to me which makes sense considering his massive workloads that have carried over from the regular season. I’d play this for a full unit at 15.5 as well.

We successfully backed Julius Randle in Game 1 of this series, but we’re going to fade the former All-Star tonight. Randle has certainly been tremendous in these playoffs and done a lot to shed his playoff disappointment label. With that being said, Randle is playing above his head and I don’t believe his current shooting splits are sustainable, particularly from behind the arc. Couple that with facing the best three point defense in the league, on the road, where the Wolves are nearly double digit underdogs, in addition to a low total, this looks like a great spot to fade him to me. I’d play this for a full unit at 19.5.

Prior to this season, Julius Randle had really struggled in his previous postseason appearances. Fast forward to this year and not only is Randle playing well but he’s significantly elevated his play and is averaging nearly 5 additional PPG from the regular season. Randle has eclipsed this in four consecutive games and averaged 39 PRA against Golden State. The 3x All-Star had a pair of double digit assist games and is routinely stuffing the staff sheet and contributing in a myriad of ways. Look for Anthony Edwards to continue to command a lot of attention and Randle has taken advantage.

Rudy Gobert has really struggled throughout the postseason and has largely been ineffective. Aside from a single game in each series, Gobert is averaging just 5.5 PPG and has been off the floor during crunch time and in the 4th quarter. Now Gobert is facing an elite OKC defense that should give him fits. I expect Minnesota to play Naz Reid more in this series which will come at Goberts expense.

This number suggests a bump in usage and that Aaron Gordon is doubtful to suit up for Game 7. Christian Braun has played great basketball but this is a tough spot for the former Kansas Jayhawk. Even if Aaron Gordon doesn’t suit up there is some significant blowout potential and Braun is facing the leagues best defense on the road in a hostile environment.

This is already a low combo line for Jrue Holiday, especially considering his playing time and usage is set to increase after Jayson Tatum suffered a serious injury. I expect Holiday to play upwards of 40+ minutes if he is able to stay out of foul trouble. Jrue is also a capable rebounder and he will need to provide Boston with a well rounded game if the C’s hope to force a Game 7.

We just successfully faded MPJ but I believe the oddsmakers over adjusted his lines, especially considering this game is being played in Denver where he’s been far more productive in the playoffs. The Nuggets are in desperate need of another scoring option. I’m willing to roll the dice here and bank on a bounce back for the talented forward.

Al Horford has had a great career however at 38 years old, this is a hefty combo line for the big man. Horford has failed to eclipse this line in 8/9 playoff appearances this year. Even without Jayson Tatum, I don’t expect Horfords usage to increase significantly. Kristaps Porzingis said he felt good for the first time in these playoffs and I anticipate him, along with Derrick White, Jrue Holiday and of course Jaylen Brown to be the primary beneficiaries with Tatum missing.

This is a low combo line for Russell Westbrook who has been more good than bad throughout the Nuggets postseason run. Denver is having to rely on Westbrook as they play a very thin 6-7 man rotation, not to mention Michael Porter Jr. really struggling, particularly on the road. Russ is coming off two poor performances and I think he has a good shot to bounce back and see a few extra minutes in the event MPJ continues to struggle.